Federal authorities are reviewing large oil positions placed just before key developments in the US-Iran conflict, investigating potential insider trading related to the war's impact on energy markets.
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that inflation is already picking up and the global economy could face a 'much worse outcome' if the war in the Middle East continues into 2027, with particular concern about prolonged disruption to energy supplies.
Iran's rial fell nearly 15% in two days to a record low of 1,810,000 to the dollar, as demand for foreign currency that had built up during six weeks of fighting flooded the open market following the ceasefire. The US naval blockade has cut off Iran's oil export revenue while year-on-year inflation reached 65.8%, compounding an economic crisis that had already helped spark the January 2026 protests.
Crude oil prices jumped nearly 8% to over $103-104 per barrel following Trump's announcement of the Iranian port blockade and the failure of peace talks. Physical oil prices in some markets approached $150 as buyers paid record premiums for immediate delivery amid supply disruption fears.
Reuters reported that White House staff received warnings against using confidential information for trading after suspicious Iran-linked oil futures bets raised insider trading concerns, with fresh scrutiny on prediction markets.
