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Oct 19, 2026

Canadian business outlook deteriorates after trade talks collapse, Bank of Canada survey finds

A Bank of Canada survey shows Canadian firms' business sentiment worsened following the collapse of trade negotiations, with companies expecting inflation to remain above 3% over the next two years and planning to pass higher costs to customers.

Oct 19, 2026·5 sources
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Top claims

  • ▪The Canadian dollar rose nearly one-third of a U.S. cent on October 19, 2026, despite simultaneous modest gains in the U.S. dollar against other major currencies.
  • ▪Following Bank of Canada survey releases and Governor Tiff Macklem's comments, money market swaps implied a 75% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the October 28, 2026 policy decision.
  • ▪The collapse of Canada-U.S. trade negotiations on August 21, 2026, was followed by a 50% U.S. tariff on approximately $28 billion of Canadian goods and planned Canadian retaliatory counter-tariffs.

Subtopics

Inflation expectations1International trade1Tariffs & trade wars1

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