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Aug 10, 2026

Polymarket switches to time-weighted pricing after researchers expose $8.2 million manipulation scheme

Researchers discovered 821 accounts that exploited Polymarket's single-price settlement mechanism to manipulate bitcoin prices in the final seconds before contract settlement, profiting $8.2 million. The prediction market has now replaced snapshot pricing with time-weighted average prices (TWAP) for short-dated crypto markets.

Aug 10, 2026·2 sources
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Top claims

  • ▪Under Polymarket's updated system, five-minute markets resolve using a 30-second average, while 15-minute and four-hour markets resolve using a 60-second average.
  • ▪Polymarket developer Josh Stevens publicly responded to warnings about settlement manipulation on May 11, 2026, stating that the platform was looking into the issue.
  • ▪The Stanford and Singapore Management University study found that in manipulated Polymarket settlement windows, a contract the market treated as near-certain was overturned one time in three.

Subtopics

Bitcoin1Crypto market integrity & manipulation1Crypto market structure1DeFi1Prediction markets1

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