Stanford University stories

Jul 15, 2026

Stanford study finds signs of manipulation in Polymarket Bitcoin contracts

Researchers at Stanford University and Singapore Management University found that Polymarket's five-minute Bitcoin prediction markets create incentives for traders to manipulate spot prices around settlement times, with evidence suggesting coordinated price manipulation.

Jul 15, 2026·5 sources

Apr 14, 2026

Stanford AI Index 2026 Shows Widening Gap Between AI Experts and Public Trust

Stanford HAI's AI Index Report 2026 documents major performance leaps in AI models and narrowing US-China gap, but reveals growing disconnect between industry insiders and public, with rising anxiety over jobs, healthcare, and economic impacts alongside declining trust.

Apr 14, 2026·2 sources

Top claims

▪After the contract's launch, net order flow on Binance jumped about 50% in the final ten seconds before settlement.
▪Binance's price is a close proxy for the oracle, finishing on the same side of the strike price 85% of the time.
▪On February 12, 2026, Polymarket launched a five-minute binary contract where traders bet if Bitcoin's price would be higher or lower at the end of the window.

Topics

Bitcoin market analysis DeFi Crypto market integrity & manipulation Crypto market manipulation Crypto derivatives Prediction markets

AGI benchmarks & milestone tracking

AI safety & social impact

AI labor & economic disruption

AI research & benchmarks

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