Prediction markets stories

Sep 22, 2026

Bernstein raises prediction market forecast to $10 trillion by 2035 as CFTC warns of manipulation risks

Investment bank Bernstein has increased its prediction market forecast tenfold to $10 trillion in annual trading volume by 2035, up from $410 billion currently. Simultaneously, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued guidance warning that 'mentions' contracts—bets on what public figures might say—present heightened manipulation risks and can only be offered in limited circumstances.

Sep 22, 20265 sources

Trueo prediction market migrates from Base to Ethereum mainnet

Onchain prediction market protocol Trueo announced it will move its primary deployment from Base Layer 2 to Ethereum mainnet, citing greater integration potential and network effects. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin welcomed the move, praising Trueo as an 'ethical' market contender.

Sep 22, 20265 sources

Sep 20, 2026

Polymarket hit by $10M stolen debit card fraud attempt in February

Prediction market platform Polymarket faced at least $10 million in fraudulent withdrawal attempts using stolen debit cards on its U.S. platform in February 2026. Payment processor Checkout.com reportedly rejected over 80% of deposits as fraudulent at one point, far exceeding typical industry rates.

Sep 20, 20262 sources

Sep 17, 2026

South Korean police charge 26 Polymarket users over $12.7 million in alleged illegal gambling

South Korean authorities have booked 26 users of the crypto prediction market Polymarket on suspicion of illegal gambling involving 17.6 billion won ($12.7 million), with 18 cases already referred to prosecutors. Police identified the users through public blockchain transaction records.

Sep 17, 20263 sources

Sep 11, 2026

US government investigates potential insider trading on Polymarket prediction markets

Federal regulators have launched at least three previously unreported investigations into suspicious trading activity on Polymarket, including trades related to Biden pardons, Iran war predictions, and potential insider trading at Google. A cluster of accounts also won big on companies audited by KPMG.

Sep 11, 20262 sources

Sep 10, 2026

European regulator warns Polymarket and Kalshi lack authorization to serve EU users

The European Securities and Markets Authority issued a statement warning that major prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi lack the required authorization to operate in the EU, raising questions about their access to European users.

Sep 10, 20263 sources

Polymarket names Warren Jenson as first CFO

Polymarket hired former Amazon CFO Warren Jenson as its first chief financial officer, putting him in charge of finance, capital strategy and long-term planning as the prediction market expands.

Sep 10, 20263 sources

European Securities and Markets Authority questions Polymarket and Kalshi's EU access

ESMA warned that major prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi lack required authorization to serve EU users, stating several countries are investigating their operations and raising insider trading concerns.

Sep 10, 20264 sources

Sep 8, 2026

Robinhood takes minority stakes in Crypto.com and OG.com in prediction markets partnership

Robinhood Markets agreed to acquire minority stakes in Crypto.com and its prediction-markets spinout OG.com, valued at $5 billion, while adding OG.com's yes-or-no event contracts to its trading platform. The multi-year deal makes OG.com an infrastructure and clearing provider for Robinhood's prediction markets platform, with football event contracts already being routed to Crypto.com's CFTC-regulated exchange.

Sep 8, 2026

Sep 7, 2026

UK Financial Conduct Authority considers easing ban on retail prediction markets

Britain's Financial Conduct Authority is reportedly in discussions about loosening restrictions on retail financial prediction markets, which it effectively banned in 2019. No policy change has been announced as of September 7, 2026.

Sep 7, 20263 sources

Sep 5, 2026

LeBron James partners with Polymarket as prediction platform's first athlete ambassador

NBA superstar LeBron James announced a partnership with prediction market platform Polymarket on September 5, 2026, becoming the company's first individual athlete partner. The collaboration, teased in a video posted to social media, focuses on sports-related prediction markets with a full campaign reveal scheduled for the following week.

Sep 5, 20264 sources

Sep 3, 2026

Polymarket launches perpetual futures trading with up to 20x leverage

Polymarket opened perpetual futures trading on September 3, 2026, offering 67 contracts across stocks, crypto, indices, and commodities with up to 20x leverage. Order placement is blocked from the United States.

Sep 3, 20265 sources

Michigan court blocks Kalshi from operating in state as New Jersey seeks Supreme Court review

A Michigan state court issued a preliminary injunction barring prediction-market platform Kalshi from offering services in the state, with Judge Rosemarie Aquilina threatening a $500,000 daily fine. Separately, New Jersey filed a petition for Supreme Court review seeking clarity on regulatory authority over prediction markets.

Sep 3, 20262 sources

Gate launches white-label prediction market builder for businesses

Cryptocurrency exchange Gate is entering the prediction market space by offering a white-label builder that allows businesses to add forecasting tools to their existing applications, responding to growing demand for prediction market features.

Sep 3, 20261 source

Sep 2, 2026

New Jersey petitions Supreme Court over prediction market regulation

New Jersey became the first state to petition the US Supreme Court to rule on how prediction markets should be regulated, asking whether states can classify platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket as gambling. The petition follows a two-year legal battle.

Sep 2, 20264 sources

Aug 31, 2026

Trump Jr's 1789 Capital leads $1 billion Polymarket round at $21 billion valuation

1789 Capital, where Donald Trump Jr. serves as a partner, is leading a $1 billion funding round for prediction market Polymarket at a $21 billion valuation, with the firm contributing approximately $300 million.

Aug 31, 20264 sources

Kalshi suspends North Carolina GOP candidate Laurie Buckhout for betting on her own race

Online prediction market Kalshi suspended Republican House candidate Laurie Buckhout and fined her after finding she wagered on her own race in North Carolina's battleground district. The platform banned her for three years.

Aug 31, 20264 sources

Kalshi suspends GOP House candidate Laurie Buckhout for betting on her own race

Online prediction market Kalshi suspended Republican House candidate Laurie Buckhout and fined her $25,000 after discovering she wagered on her own congressional race in North Carolina's 1st District. The retired Army colonel, running against Democratic Rep. Don Davis in a key battleground district, received a three-year suspension from the platform.

Aug 31, 20264 sources

George Santos receives lifetime ban from Kalshi for insider trading on State of the Union attendance

Prediction market platform Kalshi permanently banned former Rep. George Santos and fined him $71,356 after determining he made over $17,000 by betting against his own attendance at President Trump's State of the Union address. This marks Kalshi's first-ever lifetime ban.

Aug 31, 20269 sources

George Santos receives lifetime ban from Kalshi for insider trading on own attendance

Prediction market Kalshi permanently banned former Rep. George Santos and fined him over $71,000 after determining he placed bets on whether he would attend the State of the Union address. This is Kalshi's first-ever lifetime ban.

Aug 31, 20269 sources

Aug 29, 2026

CFTC fines former White House teleprompter operator $172,000 for Kalshi insider trading

The CFTC ordered Gabriel Perez, who operated President Trump's teleprompter, to pay over $172,000 for using advance access to speech content to place bets on Kalshi prediction markets.

Aug 29, 20263 sources

Trump teleprompter operator settles insider trading case for $172,000

White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez agreed to pay $172,539 to settle CFTC charges that he used advance knowledge of President Trump's speeches to make profitable prediction market bets.

Aug 29, 20264 sources

Aug 26, 2026

Kalshi raises $1.12 billion in private equity offering

Prediction market platform Kalshi has raised approximately $1.12 billion since April according to its latest SEC filing, marking one of the largest fundraises in the prediction markets space.

Aug 26, 20262 sources

Aug 20, 2026

CME CEO Terrence Duffy clashes with CFTC and Kalshi executives over prediction market regulation

A heated confrontation erupted at a CFTC committee meeting as CME Group Chairman Terrence Duffy questioned prediction market oversight and singled out Kalshi, sparking a public dispute with CFTC officials and Kalshi's COO over how the rapidly growing sector should be regulated. Duffy raised concerns about manipulation vulnerabilities in prediction markets.

Aug 20, 20264 sources

CME CEO Terrence Duffy clashes with CFTC and Kalshi executives over prediction market regulation

Aug 20, 20264 sources

Intercontinental Exchange considers additional investment in Polymarket at over $20 billion valuation

Intercontinental Exchange, parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, is weighing further investment in prediction market platform Polymarket's upcoming funding round, which would value the company at more than $20 billion. ICE has already committed up to $2 billion in equity to Polymarket.

Aug 20, 20263 sources

Polymarket faces scrutiny as soldier charged with insider trading on military secrets

More than 150 wallets on Polymarket may have traded on inside US military information, according to new research, while a soldier who participated in a raid that captured Maduro faces charges for trading on the platform. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan revealed the company employs a former FBI officer to monitor traders full-time.

Aug 20, 20263 sources

Aug 19, 2026

Cantor Fitzgerald launches prediction market trading for institutional investors via Kalshi

Investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald has opened prediction market trading to approximately 3,000 institutional clients through CFTC-regulated exchange Kalshi. Cantor will serve as broker for arranging large-volume block transactions on event contracts.

Aug 19, 20265 sources

Aug 18, 2026

South Korea blocks access to Polymarket over gambling violations

South Korea has restricted local access to prediction market Polymarket, citing violations of the country's gambling laws, joining more than 30 jurisdictions that have blocked the platform.

Aug 18, 20264 sources

Aug 17, 2026

South Korea blocks Polymarket access over illegal gambling concerns

South Korea's communications regulator has ordered internet providers to block access to Polymarket, ruling that the crypto-based prediction market violates Korean gambling laws despite its decentralized settlement structure. The country joins more than 30 jurisdictions restricting access to the platform.

Aug 17, 20266 sources

Aug 14, 2026

Unitree draws record investor demand ahead of Shanghai IPO debut

Chinese humanoid robot maker Unitree is preparing for its debut on the Shanghai Stock Exchange amid a flood of investor applications, with crypto derivatives traders on Hyperliquid pricing the stock near $93 with potential 4x upside.

Aug 14, 20262 sources

Aug 13, 2026

White House to host crypto and prediction market executives next week

The White House is expected to host executives from cryptocurrency and prediction market industries next Wednesday, according to multiple sources, though details and guest list remain unsettled.

Aug 13, 20263 sources

Kalshi in advanced talks with Sequoia and Wellington for $750 million round at $40 billion valuation

Prediction market platform Kalshi is negotiating a funding round that would nearly double its May valuation, according to sources familiar with the matter. The deal comes as Baltimore sued Kalshi over unlicensed sports betting allegations.

Aug 13, 20262 sources

Aug 12, 2026

Regulators and New York City Council investigate prediction market platforms over marketing practices

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued new guidance warning prediction markets about incentives programs, while New York City Council Speaker Julie Menin launched a probe into platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged predatory marketing tactics targeting young traders. The investigations focus on promotional practices including cash vouchers, reward points, and influencer marketing.

Aug 12, 20265 sources

New York City Council opens investigation into prediction market platforms over marketing practices

The New York City Council has launched a probe into four major prediction market platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi, over allegations of using false, deceptive, or abusive marketing tactics that target young people. Council Speaker Julie Menin accused the platforms of predatory marketing practices to exploit young traders.

Aug 12, 20266 sources

New York City Council opens investigation into prediction market platforms over marketing practices

Aug 12, 20269 sources

Aug 11, 2026

CFTC orders Kalshi to continue operating amid New York lawsuit

The CFTC invoked emergency authority to order prediction market Kalshi to keep operating after New York sued the platform over flight cancellation contracts.

Aug 11, 20263 sources

FlightAware withdraws lawsuit against Kalshi one day after filing

Flight tracking company FlightAware dismissed its lawsuit against prediction market Kalshi just one day after filing, having sought a restraining order over alleged unauthorized use of flight data for cancellation betting markets.

Aug 11, 20265 sources

FlightAware sues Kalshi over unauthorized use of flight data in prediction markets

Flight tracking company FlightAware has filed a lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging unauthorized use of its flight data and brand in flight-cancellation betting markets. FlightAware is seeking court orders to halt Kalshi's use of its information.

Aug 11, 20261 source

Aug 10, 2026

Polymarket switches to time-weighted pricing after researchers expose $8.2 million manipulation scheme

Researchers discovered 821 accounts that exploited Polymarket's single-price settlement mechanism to manipulate bitcoin prices in the final seconds before contract settlement, profiting $8.2 million. The prediction market has now replaced snapshot pricing with time-weighted average prices (TWAP) for short-dated crypto markets.

Aug 10, 20262 sources

Aug 7, 2026

Trump Media ends Crypto.com treasury and prediction market deals

Trump Media and Technology Group terminated its planned $1+ billion CRO treasury venture with Crypto.com and Yorkville Acquisition Corp, along with a related prediction market services agreement, citing updated corporate strategies.

Aug 7, 20266 sources

CFTC Warns Prediction Markets to Stop Using American-Style Betting Odds Displays

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued guidance telling prediction market platforms under its oversight to stop displaying prices using American-style gambling odds (moneyline format), as the regulator seeks to distinguish regulated derivatives markets from sports betting operations amid legal challenges.

Aug 7, 20269 sources

Michigan Federal Judge Denies Coinbase Bid to Block State Enforcement on Sports Event Contracts

U.S. District Judge Shalina Kumar rejected Coinbase's preliminary injunction request to prevent Michigan from enforcing gambling laws against its sports event prediction contracts, dismissing the company's arguments as 'applesauce.' The ruling follows Coinbase's December 2025 lawsuit seeking to establish federal jurisdiction over prediction markets.

Aug 7, 20265 sources

Jul 31, 2026

George Santos settles CFTC charges for $35,000 over prediction market trades

Former congressman George Santos agreed to pay $35,000 to settle Commodity Futures Trading Commission charges related to trades he made on Kalshi regarding whether he would attend the State of the Union.

Jul 31, 20262 sources

Jul 30, 2026

Coinbase posts $359 million Q2 loss on $1.22 billion revenue, missing Wall Street estimates

Coinbase reported a $359 million net loss for Q2 2026 on revenue of $1.22 billion, below the $1.29 billion consensus. This marks the company's third consecutive quarterly loss as crypto trading activity slowed, though prediction markets revenue doubled and trading market share hit a record 10.3%.

Jul 30, 202612 sources

Jul 29, 2026

Binance.US to apply for CFTC license in August for prediction markets platform

Binance.US CEO Stephen Gregory announced the exchange will apply for a CFTC Designated Contract Market license next month to launch prediction markets, joining competitors Gemini, Coinbase, Robinhood, Kalshi and Polymarket in the space.

Jul 29, 20263 sources

Jul 27, 2026

Fanatics acquires CFTC-regulated exchange in prediction markets expansion

Fanatics purchased BGC's Water Street Labs and CX Clearinghouse, gaining the ability to list and settle its own event contracts on a federally regulated platform. The deal positions Fanatics to compete directly with DraftKings and FanDuel in the rapidly growing prediction markets sector.

Jul 27, 20262 sources

Jul 25, 2026

CFTC warns prediction markets over vague self-certification

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission warned prediction markets to follow proper rules when creating contract certifications, signaling increased regulatory scrutiny of the sector.

Jul 25, 20262 sources

Jul 22, 2026

Polymarket to challenge France's nationwide website block

Polymarket announced it will legally challenge France's decision to block access to its website nationwide, arguing the regulator wrongly treated an information source as illegal gambling despite trading already being disabled since November 2024.

Jul 22, 20264 sources

Jul 19, 2026

Kalshi adds 3 million users during FIFA World Cup

Prediction market platform Kalshi onboarded 3 million new users during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with trading volumes surging above $1 billion across the platform during the tournament.

Jul 19, 20262 sources

Jul 18, 2026

France orders ISPs to block Polymarket after payments ban fails

France's National Gambling Authority instructed internet service providers to block access to Polymarket on July 16, escalating enforcement after a previous payments ban proved insufficient.

Jul 18, 20261 source

Jul 16, 2026

Kalshi launches prediction markets for clinical trials and FDA drug approvals

Prediction market platform Kalshi will begin taking bets on the outcomes of clinical trials and FDA regulatory reviews, making drug-development odds public for the first time and expanding into biotechnology.

Jul 16, 20263 sources

Jul 15, 2026

Stanford study finds signs of manipulation in Polymarket Bitcoin contracts

Researchers at Stanford University and Singapore Management University found that Polymarket's five-minute Bitcoin prediction markets create incentives for traders to manipulate spot prices around settlement times, with evidence suggesting coordinated price manipulation.

Jul 15, 20265 sources

Jul 10, 2026

Polymarket Files for US Margin Trading License with National Futures Association

Polymarket's affiliated entity filed with the National Futures Association on July 3 to offer margin trading in the US, though activation still requires CFTC approval. The move would allow users to open positions with a fraction of capital required upfront.

Jul 10, 20264 sources

Jun 24, 2026

Cboe Launches Prediction Markets Product with Binary Options on S&P 500

Cboe Global Markets debuted binary option contracts on the Mini-S&P 500 Index through Interactive Brokers, offering retail traders a regulated prediction market product fully backed by OCC clearing and standard US options regulation.

Jun 24, 20263 sources

Jun 21, 2026

Polymarket Accused of Using Fake Winning Bets in Viral Marketing Campaign

Wall Street Journal investigation found Polymarket paid college-age creators to stage fake winning bets on copycat websites, with roughly $1.9 million in fabricated wagers shown across social media to fuel viral growth.

Jun 21, 20262 sources

Jun 19, 2026

Kalshi Explores IPO as Revenue Hits $2 Billion Annualized

Prediction market platform Kalshi has begun informal discussions with investment banks about a potential initial public offering, with the company reportedly achieving $2 billion in annualized revenue and a $22 billion valuation.

Jun 19, 20264 sources

Jun 11, 2026

Bernstein projects 2026 FIFA World Cup to drive $5-10B in prediction market volume

Investment firm Bernstein analysts forecast the 2026 FIFA World Cup, kicking off in North America, will generate between $5-10 billion in consumer sports betting and prediction market trading volume, calling it a 'watershed moment' for the prediction markets sector.

Jun 11, 20262 sources

Jun 10, 2026

CFTC Proposes First-Ever Prediction Markets Rulebook, Would Ban War and Assassination Contracts

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission opened public comment on proposed rules for prediction markets that would prohibit contracts dependent on war, assassination, or the ouster of foreign leaders, while also banning certain sports prop bets.

Jun 10, 20262 sources

Jun 9, 2026

Kalshi Implements Mandatory Employer Disclosure for Traders in Sensitive Markets to Combat Insider Trading

Prediction market platform Kalshi announced it will require users to disclose their employers before trading certain contracts involving sensitive information, such as corporate earnings and product launches. The move addresses growing concerns about insider trading on the CFTC-regulated platform.

Jun 9, 202611 sources

Chainlink Secures Oracle Deals with FIFA World Cup 2026 Prediction Market Platforms

Chainlink has been integrated as the oracle infrastructure provider for multiple FIFA World Cup 2026 prediction market platforms, including ADI Predictstreet (official prediction market partner) and Myriad, to power real-time match outcome settlements and instant payouts.

Jun 9, 20264 sources

Jun 8, 2026

Senator Warren criticizes weakened CFTC as Congress advances crypto tax and regulatory legislation

Senator Elizabeth Warren demanded records from the CFTC regarding staff departures and oversight of prediction markets and crypto firms, calling the agency 'steamrolled,' as the House Ways and Means Committee separately weighs multiple crypto tax relief bills including provisions for stablecoins.

Jun 8, 20264 sources

Jun 5, 2026

South Korea Opens First Criminal Investigation Into Polymarket Users for Illegal Gambling

South Korean police have launched the country's first investigation into domestic Polymarket users, accusing them of illegal gambling as regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets intensifies.

Jun 5, 20263 sources

Jun 4, 2026

Bitget launches dual initiatives: World Cup prediction market with Polymarket and Anti-Scam Month security campaign

Bitget has announced two major initiatives in June 2026: a World Cup prediction market partnership with Polymarket through Bitget Wallet reaching 90 million users, and its annual Anti-Scam Month security campaign aimed at combating $442 billion in annual multi-asset fraud losses.

Jun 4, 20262 sources

Jun 3, 2026

Polymarket CMO Allegedly Paid Influencers $350,000 Through Personal PayPal Without Disclosure

Polymarket's chief marketing officer Matthew Modabber reportedly used his personal PayPal account to send at least $350,000 to content creators including Nick Shirley and Riley Gaines who promoted the prediction market platform without disclosing the payments. The allegations emerge as the company faces separate regulatory scrutiny and cuts ties with George Santos.

Jun 3, 20265 sources

Jun 2, 2026

Galaxy Digital Launches Institutional OTC Prediction Markets Desk With $10 Million CLARITY Act Trade

Galaxy Digital has opened an over-the-counter prediction markets trading desk for institutional investors, executing its first trade—a $10 million bet with hedge fund Arca on the passage of the CLARITY Act, U.S. crypto legislation.

Jun 2, 20265 sources

Jun 1, 2026

Kalshi Launches First U.S. Regulated Bitcoin Perpetual Futures Amid George Santos Insider Trading Investigation

Prediction market platform Kalshi launched the first CFTC-regulated Bitcoin perpetual futures in the U.S. and applied for altcoin derivatives, while former congressman George Santos faces federal investigation for allegedly betting against his own attendance at a State of the Union address on the platform.

Jun 1, 20266 sources

May 22, 2026

Polymarket Smart Contract Exploited for Over $600,000 on Polygon

An attacker drained over $600,000 from Polymarket's UMA CTF Adapter smart contract on Polygon, with ZachXBT flagging the ongoing exploit. The incident affected the world's largest prediction market platform.

May 22, 20266 sources

May 18, 2026

Kalshi Crosses $4 Billion in Weekly Trading Volume for First Time

Prediction market platform Kalshi recorded over $4 billion in weekly notional volume, up from $54.5 million in the same period last year, representing approximately 7,200% year-over-year growth.

May 18, 20261 source

May 3, 2026

Polymarket and Kalshi Combined Lifetime Trading Volumes Hit $150 Billion in April

The two leading prediction market platforms reached $150 billion in combined lifetime trading volume during April, marking a major milestone as the sector gains widespread attention and regulatory scrutiny.

May 3, 20261 source

May 1, 2026

U.S. Senate Unanimously Votes to Ban Senators and Staff From Trading on Prediction Markets

The Senate passed S. Res. 708 unanimously, immediately prohibiting senators and their staff from using prediction markets platforms amid insider trading concerns.

May 1, 20263 sources

Apr 30, 2026

Polymarket Partners with Chainalysis for Real-Time Surveillance Amid Insider Trading Concerns

Prediction market platform Polymarket engaged blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis to monitor trading activity in real-time for insider trading and market manipulation as it seeks $15 billion valuation and CFTC approval for U.S. relaunch.

Apr 30, 20263 sources

Gemini Secures CFTC Derivatives Clearing Organization License for Prediction Markets and Perpetuals

Crypto exchange Gemini obtained a DCO license from the CFTC, allowing it to act as an in-house clearinghouse for derivatives and prediction markets, positioning it to compete with Kalshi and Polymarket.

Apr 30, 20263 sources

Apr 29, 2026

Polymarket Reportedly Seeking CFTC Approval to Reopen U.S. Exchange

Polymarket is in talks with the CFTC to bring its main exchange back to U.S. traders, according to Bloomberg, which would allow it to compete directly with Kalshi domestically.

Apr 29, 20262 sources

Robinhood Q1 Crypto Revenue Falls 47% Despite Prediction Market Surge

Robinhood reported Q1 crypto revenue dropped 47% to $134 million, though prediction market betting helped push overall revenue up 15% to $1.07 billion. Stock fell 8% on the earnings miss.

Apr 29, 20263 sources

Apr 25, 2026

CFTC Sues New York Over Prediction Market Restrictions, Expanding Multi-State Legal Battle

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission added New York to its string of lawsuits against states seeking to curtail prediction market activity, claiming federal jurisdiction over these markets versus state gaming regulation.

Apr 25, 20261 source

Brazil Bans Prediction Market Platforms Including Polymarket and Kalshi Citing Investor Protection

Brazil's Finance Ministry blocked 28 betting platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi, citing investor protection concerns and rising gambling addiction. Finance Minister Dario Durigan announced the sweeping ban affecting major prediction market operators.

Apr 25, 20262 sources

Apr 24, 2026

Wisconsin Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Crypto.com and Coinbase Over Sports Event Contracts

Wisconsin Department of Justice filed lawsuit against five prediction market platforms, alleging their sports event contracts violate state gambling laws, citing platform language as evidence of gambling rather than investing.

Apr 24, 20262 sources

US Soldier Charged with Insider Trading on Polymarket Over Maduro Capture

Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US soldier involved in the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, faces charges for allegedly using classified information to win over $400,000 betting on Polymarket.

Apr 24, 20265 sources

US Army Soldier Charged with $400K Insider Trading on Polymarket Using Classified Venezuela Intelligence

Federal prosecutors arrested Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke for allegedly using confidential military intelligence to place over $400,000 in bets on Polymarket regarding Venezuela operations, including the capture of Nicolás Maduro. The soldier allegedly participated in the raid himself and attempted to conceal his betting activity.

Apr 24, 20263 sources

Kalshi Bans Three US Politicians for Betting on Their Own Election Races

Prediction market platform Kalshi penalized three congressional candidates—Mark Moran, Matt Klein, and Ezekiel Enriquez—for wagering on their own campaigns. Minnesota State Senator Matt Klein admitted placing bets out of curiosity, while Moran claimed he wanted to test Kalshi's response to insider trading.

Apr 24, 20264 sources

Apr 22, 2026

Coinbase Shifts New York Prediction Markets Lawsuit to Federal Court

Coinbase removed New York Attorney General's prediction markets lawsuit from state to federal court, setting up a jurisdictional fight over CFTC authority versus state gambling laws. The move follows New York's lawsuit against Coinbase and Gemini over alleged illegal prediction market gambling.

Apr 22, 20261 source

Kalshi and Polymarket Eye Crypto Perpetual Futures Trading Expansion

Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly planning to launch crypto perpetual futures trading, expanding beyond event-based betting into derivatives markets.

Apr 22, 20265 sources

Senator Bernie Moreno Issues End-of-May Ultimatum on CLARITY Act, Warning Failure to Pass Before Memorial Day Could Shelve Bill Until 2030

Senator Bernie Moreno warned at a Washington event that the CLARITY Act must clear Congress by end of May or risk being shelved until 2030. His statement moved Polymarket odds of 2026 passage from 38% to 46%.

Apr 22, 20263 sources

Apr 21, 2026

New York Attorney General Sues Coinbase and Gemini Over Alleged Illegal Prediction Market Gambling

New York AG Letitia James filed lawsuits against Coinbase and Gemini, alleging their prediction market offerings constitute illegal gambling operations under state law.

Apr 21, 20263 sources

Apr 17, 2026

CFTC Chair Selig Faces Bipartisan Congressional Grilling on Prediction Markets and Hyperliquid

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig faced intense bipartisan questioning from House lawmakers over the agency's approach to prediction markets, sports betting contracts, and oversight of crypto derivatives platform Hyperliquid amid staffing concerns.

Apr 17, 20264 sources

Apr 15, 2026

Polymarket odds of Satoshi moving Bitcoin double to 9.3% following BIP-361 publication

Following BIP-361's publication, Polymarket odds for "Will Satoshi Nakamoto move any Bitcoin in 2026?" climbed to 9.3%, up from 4.5% at the start of the year, drawing over $2.4 million in trading volume. Analysts noted the muted overall response suggests traders still view BIP-361 as a governance discussion rather than an imminent catalyst, but the doubling of odds signals growing market unease around Satoshi's estimated 1.1 million BTC.

Apr 15, 20263 sources