Oil tankers defy Iran warnings in Strait of Hormuz as prices fall to pre-war levels following peace talks

Jun 25, 2026

Global oil prices have fallen to pre-war levels near $72 a barrel as commercial shipping cautiously resumes in the Strait of Hormuz following a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. However, a fresh dispute has emerged over a new UN-backed transit route close to Oman. Iran's Revolutionary Guard has declared the Omani route prohibited, warning that violators will be dealt with, while a cargo ship was hit by a projectile on June 25, 2026. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Gulf allies have rejected Iranian threats and proposals to charge transit tolls in the strategic waterway.

Hormuz shipping route dispute

▪The British military reported that a cargo ship moving through the Strait of Hormuz was hit by a projectile on June 25, 2026.
▪Oman and the International Maritime Organization established a new shipping transit route close to the Omani coastline to bypass mined areas.
▪The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned commercial vessels to only use shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz approved by Tehran.

US-Iran memorandum terms

▪Under the memorandum of understanding, Iran agreed to make best efforts for the safe, charge-free passage of commercial vessels for 60 days.
▪The memorandum of understanding requires Iran to instate demining operations in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days of the signing.
▪The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day period to negotiate a permanent peace agreement.

Iranian transit fee proposals

▪Iran waived planned transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days, suggesting charges may be introduced after the negotiating period.
▪U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that no country has the right to charge tolls or fees on international waterways like the Strait of Hormuz.
▪United Arab Emirates diplomat Anwar Gargash warned that new geopolitical realities and transit fees cannot be unilaterally imposed on Gulf Arab states.

Commercial shipping resumption levels

▪Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz rose to 78 on June 24, 2026, which is double the previous week but below the pre-war daily average of 130.
▪Brent crude fell to $72.24 a barrel on June 25, 2026, erasing its wartime gains and returning to levels last seen before the February 28 conflict.

Strait strategic energy importance

▪The Strait of Hormuz is a vital energy corridor through which approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally transit.
▪The Strait of Hormuz serves as a critical corridor for global agriculture, carrying roughly one-third of international fertiliser trade.

Peace negotiations obstacles

▪Ongoing military clashes in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah threaten to disrupt the fragile ceasefire and wider peace negotiations.
▪Disagreements persist over the monitoring of Iran's nuclear activities and the level of access inspectors will have to damaged nuclear sites.