Record-Breaking May and June Heatwaves Linked to Over 2,700 Deaths in England and Wales, 10,000 Across Europe

A rapid analysis led by LSHTM, Imperial College London, and the Met Office estimates more than 2,700 excess heat-related deaths in England and Wales across two record-breaking heatwaves in May and June 2026 — approximately 550 during the May heatwave (21–29 May) and 2,200 during the June heatwave (18–28 June). Human-induced climate change was responsible for around 42% of those deaths (~1,140 people): roughly 59% of May deaths and 38% of June deaths. Temperatures reached a national May record of 35.1°C in West London and a national June record of 37.7°C in East Anglia, smashing records that had stood since 1944 and 1976 respectively. People aged 85 and over accounted for approximately 60% of all heat-related excess deaths. Across Europe, the June heatwave was linked to over 10,000 excess deaths. The South East had the highest total (549 deaths), while the West Midlands had the highest rate during June (49 deaths per million), a pattern researchers attributed to populations less accustomed to extreme heat.

UK May heatwave deaths

• ▪An estimated 550 heat-related deaths occurred in England and Wales during the heatwave that took place between May 21 and May 29, 2026.
• ▪Temperatures reached 35.1°C in West London during the May 2026 heatwave, breaking a national May record that had stood since 1944.
• ▪Human-induced climate change was responsible for approximately 59% of the estimated heat-related deaths in England and Wales during the May 2026 heatwave.

UK June heatwave deaths

• ▪Temperatures reached 37.7°C at Lingwood, Norfolk, during the June 2026 heatwave, breaking a national June record that had stood since 1957.

Climate attribution methodology

• ▪Researchers compared a scenario of today's climate, which has warmed by 1.4°C globally, with a reconstructed pre-industrial climate model to attribute heatwave deaths to climate change.
• ▪The rapid attribution analysis was conducted by researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Imperial College London, and the UK Met Office.

Elderly heat mortality

• ▪EuroMOMO reported that over 10,000 excess deaths occurred across Europe during the late June 2026 heatwaves, with over 9,000 of those fatalities among people aged 65 and over.
• ▪People aged 85 and over accounted for approximately 60% of the total heat-related excess deaths across the May and June 2026 heatwaves in England and Wales.

Regional vulnerability patterns

• ▪When accounting for population size, the West Midlands recorded the highest per-capita death rate during the June 2026 heatwave at 49 deaths per million people.
• ▪The South East of England recorded the highest absolute number of excess heat-related deaths across both heatwaves with 549 deaths, followed by London with 453 and the West Midlands with 368.

UK heat adaptation gaps

• ▪The Climate Change Committee warned that the United Kingdom is unprepared for extreme heat, noting that only about 5% of British homes have air conditioning.
• ▪The Climate Change Committee estimated in a May 2026 report that 92% of British homes could be too hot by the year 2050.