Russia escalates drone warfare with surveillance of European nuclear sites and intensified attacks on Ukraine

Russia has escalated drone warfare, conducting an 18-month surveillance campaign of European nuclear sites using shadow fleet vessels, while intensifying jet-powered drone attacks against Ukraine. An IISS report reveals unarmed Russian drones targeted sensitive military facilities in the UK, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. Simultaneously, Russia's deployment of high-speed Geran-5 jet drones at speeds up to 500 km/h is forcing Ukraine to deplete its limited air defense missile stockpiles.

Russian drone surveillance of European nuclear sites

• ▪Unarmed surveillance drones targeted RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk, a United Kingdom base preparing to house United States nuclear weapons, and France's nuclear submarine base at Île Longue in Brittany
• ▪An International Institute of Strategic Studies analysis of 144 incidents concluded that Russia orchestrated a drone surveillance campaign targeting nuclear sites in the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands over an 18-month period starting in late 2024
• ▪Drone incursions occurred in November and December 2025 over Kleine-Brogel airbase in Belgium and Volkel in the Netherlands, where air-launched United States nuclear weapons are stored

Russian jet-powered drone attacks on Ukraine

• ▪Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi stated in June 2026 that Russia plans to increase the share of jet-powered strike drones to 50 percent
• ▪Russian jet-powered drones reach speeds of up to 500 kilometers per hour, outpacing Ukraine's interceptor drones which have a maximum speed of 300 kilometers per hour
• ▪Russia is increasingly deploying jet-powered drones virtually around the clock in mass attacks against Ukraine to deplete Ukraine's limited supply of air defense missiles

Strategic failures and NATO air defense responses

• ▪European governments have been reluctant to publicly accuse Russia of orchestrating the drone surveillance campaign over European nuclear and military sites
• ▪The International Institute of Strategic Studies reported that western militaries failed to capture or shoot down any surveillance drones, exposing a strategic failure in NATO air defenses

Technical specifications of Russian jet-powered drones

• ▪The Russian Geran-5 attack drone, first used in January 2026, is six meters long with a 5.5-meter wingspan, carries a 90-kilogram warhead, and has a range of nearly 1,000 kilometers
• ▪The Geran-5 drone utilizes a Telefly jet engine, a 12-channel Cometa satellite navigation system, and a tracker based on a Raspberry Pi microcomputer with 3G/4G modems
• ▪The Russian Geran-3 drone features a turbojet engine, reaches speeds of up to 370 kilometers per hour, has a range of 1,000 kilometers, and is packed with explosives

Role of the Russian shadow fleet in drone operations

• ▪French commandos seized the shadow fleet tanker Boracay in September 2025, revealing a Chinese captain and two Russian nationals employed by the Moran Security Group on board
• ▪Researchers assess that surveillance drones were launched from Russia-linked shadow fleet vessels operating with their transponder tracking devices switched off in international waters

Impact of drone warfare on Ukrainian air defenses

• ▪Ukraine has been forced to expend highly valued air defense missiles to intercept Russian jet-powered drones, though Ukraine's interception rate remains above 90 percent
• ▪Ukrainian Colonel Yurii Ihnat stated that mobile fire groups and anti-drone interceptors can no longer be relied upon to stop Russia's jet-powered drones