Denmark warns Russia may escalate hybrid attacks on NATO

Sep 23, 2026

European officials warn of a sharp escalation in Russian hybrid warfare, including cyberattacks, airspace violations, and sabotage, such as a deliberate fire at a Polish Starlink station on September 23, 2026. While Baltic and European ministers dismiss the threat of an imminent, full-scale conventional invasion of NATO territory, a stark Danish intelligence report warns of a low but growing risk of a limited Russian military strike or troop incursion in the coming months.

Danish intelligence warnings on Russian threats

▪The Danish Defence Intelligence Service assessed a low but growing risk that Russia could launch a limited military attack, such as isolated long-range strikes or a small troop incursion, against a bordering NATO country in the coming months
▪The Danish Defence Intelligence Service warned on September 24, 2026, that Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid war against the West and NATO in the coming months, carrying out more frequent attacks with greater consequences
▪Danish Defence Intelligence Service chief Thomas Ahrenkiel stated that Russia's objective in conducting hybrid and limited military attacks is not to take over a country, but to divide NATO
▪The Danish Defence Intelligence Service assessed that a full-scale Russian invasion of a NATO country remains highly unlikely, estimating that Russia would need at least six months to prepare the required forces

Russian reactions and denials

▪The Russian embassy in Denmark rejected the Danish intelligence assessment on September 24, 2026, stating that the claim of a heightened risk of a Russian military attack is unsupported by credible evidence
▪The Kremlin and Russian officials consistently deny conducting sabotage operations in NATO countries or plotting any confrontation with the alliance

European ministerial warnings

▪European ministers speaking on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly stated that Russia is intensifying sabotage, cyberattacks, and drone incursions across Europe to sow fear and undermine Western support for Ukraine
▪Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys warned that Russia is considering geographically escalating its hybrid campaign by targeting critical infrastructure in NATO countries

Statements by Kaja Kallas

▪EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged European governments to increase pressure on Moscow through tougher sanctions targeting Russia's shadow fleet and military-industrial complex
▪EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated that Europe is facing a rapid proliferation of sabotage attacks and airspace violations

Estonian Foreign Minister assessments

▪Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna stated that Russia is currently unable and not preparing to launch a conventional military aggression against NATO because its forces remain heavily engaged in Ukraine
▪Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna stated that strong allied reactions have led to a sharp reduction in serious Russian airspace violations on NATO's eastern flank

Sabotage incident at Polish Starlink station

▪A fire broke out overnight on September 23, 2026, at a Starlink satellite station in Wola Krobowska, Poland, which local authorities described as a deliberate act of sabotage designed to disable the station
▪Polish Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski stated that while the perpetrator of the September 23, 2026 fire at the Starlink station in Wola Krobowska remains unestablished, many signs suggest the incident aligns with Russia's hybrid warfare doctrine

Polish airspace defense

▪Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski stated that Poland scrambles its F-16 fighter jets almost daily in response to approaching Russian drones or missiles
▪The Polish Army Operational Command reported that a Russian military Mi-8 helicopter made a brief incursion into Polish airspace from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on September 23, 2026

Romanian drone incursions

▪Romania responded to Russian drone incursions by closing the Russian consulate in Constanta and coordinating diplomatic measures with European allies
▪Romanian Foreign Minister Oana Toiu stated that Romania has detected more than 100 incursions by Russian drones or drone fragments onto Romanian territory near the Danube and Black Sea
▪Romanian Foreign Minister Oana Toiu stated that Romania has no data indicating its territory is being directly targeted by Russian drone strikes

Debatable claims

▪Russia poses a credible risk of a limited military attack on a NATO country
▪NATO's Article 5 collective defense commitment remains a reliable deterrent against Russian aggression
▪Russia is responsible for the recent sabotage attacks on European infrastructure