US-Iran tensions escalate as ceasefire expires, Strait of Hormuz closure disputed

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated sharply following the expiration of a 60-day ceasefire on August 17, 2026. President Donald Trump declared that no peace talks are active or scheduled, while asserting that the U.S. controls the Strait of Hormuz. Iran disputed this, warning that the waterway remains closed. Meanwhile, the UAE reported detecting two Iranian ballistic missiles, prompting Abu Dhabi to suspend all trade with Tehran. Geopolitical anxiety has pushed Brent crude prices above $91 a barrel.

US-Iran ceasefire expiration

• ▪The two-month window to negotiate a peace deal in the US-Israel war on Iran expired on Monday, August 17, 2026, with no end to the conflict in sight.
• ▪Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, stated on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, that Iran remains open to dialogue with the U.S. but does not confuse negotiations with surrender.
• ▪U.S. President Donald Trump ruled out extending the 60-day ceasefire agreement on Monday, August 17, 2026, stating that Tehran would not accept the terms he considers necessary to end the war.
• ▪U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, that there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Strait of Hormuz closure dispute

• ▪U.S. President Donald Trump asserted on Truth Social on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, that the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating, and that all water mines have been removed or detonated.
• ▪The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while sailing out through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, causing engine room damage and a crew casualty.
• ▪Iranian military spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaghari stated that vessels attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz would find several beautiful holes in their hulls.
• ▪Top Iranian negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut until the U.S. ends its port blockade, lifts oil sanctions, releases frozen assets, and ends military threats.

UAE ballistic missile incident

• ▪The United Arab Emirates' Ministry of Defense stated that its air defenses detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran toward the UAE on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, with both falling into the sea.
• ▪Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei rejected the UAE's missile launch claims as baseless and accused the United States and Israel of efforts to destabilize the region.
• ▪Following the reported missile incident, the United Arab Emirates suspended all trade activities, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran.

Oil price surge

• ▪Dan Alamariu, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro, warned that a lack of resolution in the Middle East conflict could combine with Russia's war in Ukraine to deliver a double shock to energy prices.
• ▪Brent crude rose above $90 a barrel for the first time since July 30, 2026, trading at $91.63 on Tuesday morning, August 18, 2026, as prospects of a U.S.-Iran peace deal receded.

Trump threats against Oman

• ▪Marc Sievers, former U.S. ambassador to Oman, stated that Trump's threat to bomb Oman was likely an attempt to get their attention rather than a practical threat, reflecting White House frustration over Oman's coordination with Iran.
• ▪U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Oman on Monday, August 17, 2026, 'we’ll bomb the shit out of them'

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