Trump touts record 9.3% drop in violent crime ahead of 2026 midterms

President Donald Trump is highlighting a historic 9.3% drop in U.S. violent crime in 2025, including an 18.1% decrease in murders, to promote his law-and-order agenda ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Speaking at the Nassau County Police Academy in New York, Trump linked the decline to his aggressive immigration crackdowns and National Guard deployments. However, criminologists and Democrats counter that the downward trend began in 2023, before Trump took office, and is driven by post-pandemic stabilization rather than federal policies.

FBI violent crime statistics

• ▪According to 2025 FBI data, murder and non-negligent manslaughter in the United States decreased by an estimated 18.1% compared to 2024.
• ▪Preliminary data for 2026 indicates that violent crime in the United States could fall to its lowest totals in recorded history, with murders forecasted to drop 23% and robberies expected to decrease by 20%.
• ▪According to 2025 FBI data, assaults in the United States fell by 7.2%, rapes declined by 7.6%, motor vehicle theft plunged by 22.7%, and burglary dropped by 15.8%.
• ▪According to 2025 FBI data, robberies in the United States fell by an estimated 18.5%, while property crime overall fell by 12.4%.
• ▪According to 2025 FBI data, violent crime in the United States fell 9.3% compared to 2024, dropping to approximately 1.1 million violent crimes.

Trump law enforcement agenda

• ▪President Donald Trump visited the Nassau County Police Academy in Garden City, New York, on August 14, 2026, to showcase the 2025 FBI crime data.
• ▪Under the Trump administration, the number of federal prosecutions for crimes unrelated to immigration dropped 7% through June 2026 to approximately 22,000, with prosecutions for gun and drug crimes also declining.
• ▪President Donald Trump threatened to sue the Center for American Progress over a report concluding that his National Guard deployments failed to reduce crime.
• ▪President Donald Trump deployed federal agents and National Guard troops to Washington, D.C., in 2025 to address what he characterized as a crime epidemic.
• ▪President Donald Trump reinstated the death penalty on his first day in office, rescinding President Joe Biden's ban on federal executions.

Crime decline causes debate

• ▪Policy analysts argue that the national crime decline was driven by the fading disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, community-level violence intervention programs, and stabilizing local law enforcement staffing.
• ▪President Donald Trump argued that his administration's mass deportation campaign, increased federal backing for police, and aggressive immigration enforcement were major contributors to the 2025 crime decline.
• ▪Criminologists and research groups, including the Council on Criminal Justice, state that the national drop in violent crime is part of a multi-year downward trend that began in 2023.
• ▪Council on Criminal Justice President and CEO Adam Gelb stated that the reasons for the crime decline are unclear and that no single policy explains the nationwide trend.

Midterm election strategy

• ▪President Donald Trump won Nassau County, New York, in 2024, flipping it to Republicans for the first time in 20 years, which is home to two Democratic House seats targeted by Republicans in 2026.
• ▪Republicans are highlighting the falling crime rates to shift political focus away from economic concerns and inflation ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections.
• ▪President Donald Trump endorsed Republican Bruce Blakeman in the New York governor's race against Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul, criticizing Hochul as being bad on crime.

Democratic response to crime claims

• ▪Democrats argue that Republicans are overstating the role of federal policy in a crime decline that began in 2023, before President Donald Trump returned to office.
• ▪Democrats argue that federal immigration officers, who have killed two U.S. citizens, pose risks to the communities targeted by the Trump administration's deportation campaigns.
• ▪Progressive Democrats have largely backed away from supporting the 'defund the police' movement that emerged after George Floyd's murder in 2020, now arguing for policing reform.

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