FGS Global analysis warns businesses of more interventionist Washington after 2026 midterms

An FGS Global report warns that the 2026 U.S. midterm elections will initiate a 27-month period of heightened policy uncertainty for businesses. Driven by economic frustration, technological disruption, and generational turnover, both major parties are projected to pursue interventionist agendas. Meanwhile, American manufacturers struggle under President Donald Trump's aluminum tariffs, which imposed up to $5 million in annual costs on companies like Shapes Unlimited and forced a century-old Michigan clockmaker to close.

FGS Global report on post-midterm uncertainty

• ▪FGS Global's analysis indicates that a Democratic victory in the House would alter congressional dynamics after Congress ceded power during President Donald Trump's presidency.
• ▪FGS Global warned that a divided U.S. government following the 2026 midterms will alter policy conflict in unpredictable ways rather than reduce political risk for businesses.
• ▪FGS Global identified voter dissatisfaction, technological disruption from artificial intelligence, and generational turnover as three key structural shifts driving post-midterm policy changes.
• ▪FGS Global's 16-page report "Alternative Futures: Beyond November" projects that the 2026 midterm elections will mark the start of a 27-month period of high strategic uncertainty for businesses.

Expected party policy focus after midterms

• ▪FGS Global partner Michael Feldman stated that post-midterm Democratic intervention would focus on affordability policies, labor protections, antitrust enforcement, and regulations curbing concentrated corporate power.
• ▪FGS Global partner Michael Feldman stated that post-midterm Republican intervention would center on tariffs, industrial policy, domestic manufacturing incentives, and measures strengthening U.S. production capacity.

Democratic midterm election strategy

• ▪Democrats aim to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate in the November 2026 midterm elections.
• ▪Democrats are focusing on voter grievances over President Donald Trump's trade policies to help flip control of Congress in November 2026.

President Donald Trump's import tariffs

• ▪Aluminum tariffs under President Donald Trump increased from 10 percent during his first administration to 25 percent and then 50 percent in 2025.
• ▪President Donald Trump reinstated many import tariffs after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down his initial trade duties.

Tariff and freight impacts on Shapes Unlimited

• ▪Shapes Unlimited CEO Doug Rende reported that U.S. aluminum tariffs caused upwards of $4.5 million to $5 million in additional annual costs for his North Jackson, Ohio company in 2026.
• ▪Shapes Unlimited CEO Doug Rende paused recruitment for new positions and increased investment in robotic assembly to cope with tariff and freight expenses in 2026.
• ▪Shipping surcharges resulting from the U.S.-Israel war on Iran added upwards of $6,500 per container of goods for suppliers of Ohio manufacturer Shapes Unlimited in 2026.

Howard Miller closure due to tariffs

• ▪Decades-long Republican voter Nelson Vandermeer lost his product design job in 2025 when tariff pressures forced Michigan clockmaker Howard Miller to shut down its factory.
• ▪Clockmaker Howard Miller closed its Zeeland, Michigan factory, laid off nearly 200 workers, and sold its brand name after a century in business due to tariffs on overseas parts.

U.S. trade relations with Canada

• ▪Washington and Ottawa imposed retaliatory tariffs on each other's products after U.S.-Canada trade negotiations collapsed in August 2026.
• ▪Canada accounts for one-third of all exports from Ohio, representing the state's largest international export market.

Debatable claims

• ▪Divided congressional control increases strategic political risk for American businesses
• ▪Congress should pass legislation limiting presidential tariff authority