The Cook Political Report shifted 11 House seats toward Democrats in October 2026, driven by President Donald Trump's low approval ratings and growing public dissatisfaction with the Iran war. The changes include shifting Montana's open 1st District to a toss-up and moving several GOP-held seats in Ohio, Kansas, and Nebraska toward Democrats. Significant outside spending from super PACs highlights heightened competition across traditionally Republican districts.
Overview and causes of the rating shifts
- ▪The Cook Political Report's shift of 11 House seats toward Democrats follows its own late September 2026 prediction that Democrats would reclaim a majority in the House of Representatives
- ▪Cook Political Report's shifting of House seats toward Democrats is driven by President Donald Trump's low polling numbers and growing public disapproval of the Iran war
- ▪The Cook Political Report shifted its race ratings for 11 U.S. House seats toward Democrats during the week of October 12, 2026, marking a continued trend of seats moving away from Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms
Specific House race rating changes
- ▪Districts represented by Democratic Reps. Greg Landsman of Ohio and Jared Moskowitz of Florida shifted further left in favor of Democrats despite prior Republican redistricting efforts intended to make them easier to flip
- ▪Districts held by Republican Reps. Derek Schmidt of Kansas and Mike Flood of Nebraska, along with the open GOP-held Florida 16th District, shifted from 'safe Republican' or 'solid Republican' to 'likely Republican,' according to Cook Political Report
- ▪The Cook Political Report moved Montana's open 1st Congressional District, which Donald Trump won by 12 points in 2024, from 'lean Republican' to 'toss up.'
- ▪Districts held by Republican Reps. Brad Finstad of Minnesota, Mike Turner of Ohio, and Mike Carey of Ohio shifted from 'likely Republican' to 'lean Republican,' as did open seats in New York's 21st and South Carolina's 1st districts, per Cook
Democratic prospects in Trump-Won districts
- ▪To secure a sizable House majority in the 2026 midterms, Democrats must win seats that Donald Trump carried in 2024, including districts he won by double digits
- ▪Analysis by Cook Political Report House editor Erin Covey indicates Democrats are competitive in House seats that voted for former President Barack Obama but swung to Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election
Story comments
Loading comments…