BIS warns AI boom could complicate central banks' ability to gauge inflation and set interest rates

On July 28, 2026, the Bank for International Settlements warned that the artificial intelligence boom complicates monetary policy by simultaneously boosting demand and supply. Debt-financed spending on data centers and chips risks mimicking an overheating economy, while uneven global growth and equity-driven wealth effects further obscure inflation signals, raising the risk of asset price bubbles and policy miscalibration.

AI boom complicates monetary policy

• ▪The Bank for International Settlements warned that central banks must distinguish temporary investment booms from lasting productivity improvements to avoid the risk of policy miscalibration.
• ▪The Bank for International Settlements stated on July 28, 2026, that the artificial intelligence boom could make it significantly harder for central banks to assess the economy and set interest rates.

Simultaneous demand supply shocks

• ▪The artificial intelligence boom simultaneously affects demand and supply, which blurs cyclical signals and complicates the assessment of underlying economic conditions.
• ▪While artificial intelligence spending drives near-term inflationary pressures, the technology could eventually expand supply and contain inflation through highly uncertain productivity gains.

Debt-financed AI investment surge

• ▪The current surge in artificial intelligence spending is increasingly financed by debt, driving up economic activity and trade.
• ▪Robust spending on data centers, chips, and digital infrastructure may resemble an overheating economy, risking a misinterpretation of strong growth by central banks.

Uneven cross-country AI impact

• ▪Economies that supply semiconductors, computing infrastructure, or artificial intelligence services may experience stronger growth, while other nations could lag behind.
• ▪The Bank for International Settlements highlighted that artificial intelligence will have an uneven impact across countries and labor markets, causing differing inflation and growth trajectories.

Equity market wealth effects

• ▪Wealth effects from artificial intelligence-driven equity gains can support consumer consumption and demand.
• ▪Optimism surrounding artificial intelligence has driven rapid equity market gains.

Asset price bubble risks

• ▪Rapid equity market gains driven by artificial intelligence optimism have raised the risk of asset price bubbles.
• ▪Financial-market effects from artificial intelligence present a challenge for central banks as they calibrate monetary policy.

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