A Datafolha poll released on October 8, 2026, shows Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro leading President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva with 49% to 45% of the vote ahead of the October 25, 2026, runoff. The result represents a technical tie due to a 2 percentage point margin of error. This follows an upset in the October 4, 2026, first-round vote where Bolsonaro surprisingly led Lula, subsequently securing support from Brazil's Republicans party on October 7, 2026.
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