New CNN polls conducted by SSRS reveal that Democrats are highly competitive in Ohio and Iowa, two red states Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. In Ohio, Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown holds a 49% to 43% lead over Republican Senator Jon Husted. Meanwhile, Iowa's Senate race is a statistical tossup, with Republican Representative Ashley Hinson leading Democrat Josh Turek 45% to 43%. Widespread economic dissatisfaction and Trump's low approval ratings are bolstering Democratic prospects.
Ohio Senate race dynamics
- ▪Among Ohio likely voters, 42% view Jon Husted's positions as about right ideologically, while 40% call Husted too conservative and 16% say Husted is not conservative enough
- ▪In the Ohio Senate race, Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown holds a 6-point lead among likely voters, with 49% supporting Brown and 43% supporting Republican Senator Jon Husted
- ▪Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown is more widely known and better liked in Ohio than Republican Senator Jon Husted, according to a CNN poll of Ohio voters
Iowa Senate race dynamics
- ▪In the Iowa Senate race, Republican Representative Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek by 2 points, with Hinson at 45% and Turek at 43% among likely voters
- ▪In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek is less well-known than Republican Representative Ashley Hinson, with 24% of likely voters having never heard of Turek or holding no opinion
- ▪Almost 3 in 10 Iowa likely voters have not yet firmly decided whom to support in the 2026 Iowa Senate race between Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek
Battle for control of the Senate
- ▪In a CNN poll, when asked which party they want in control of the Senate, Iowa likely voters favor Republicans 53% to 46%, while Ohio likely voters are split 52% for Democrats and 48% for Republicans
- ▪To gain control of the Senate, Democrats must retain their seats in battlegrounds like Michigan, New Hampshire, and Georgia, while flipping four Republican-held seats
Economic concerns in Ohio and Iowa
- ▪About half of likely voters in both Ohio and Iowa identify the economy and the cost of living as their top issue, outpacing the state of U.S. democracy by more than 20 points
- ▪About three-quarters of likely voters in Ohio and Iowa state that President Donald Trump's policies have increased the cost of living in their respective states
Donald Trump's approval ratings
- ▪National polling averages from Decision Desk HQ on October 8, 2026, placed President Donald Trump's national approval rating at 37.4% and his disapproval rating at 60.3%
- ▪President Donald Trump's job approval rating stands at 36% in Ohio and 41% in Iowa, with sixty-four percent of Ohio voters disapproving of Trump's performance
Debatable claims
- ▪President Trump's low approval rating makes him a liability for Republican candidates
- ▪Jon Husted's political positions are too conservative for Ohio voters
- ▪Senate party control matters more to voters than individual candidate character
- ▪Sherrod Brown's lead is driven more by personal popularity than party alignment
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