U.S. healthcare clinician shortage projected to nearly double by 2040

The United States healthcare system faces a severe workforce crisis, with a Covista report projecting that the national clinician shortage will nearly double by 2040. Driven by burnout, low wages, and training bottlenecks, the crisis already leaves 108 million Americans in primary care shortage areas and 38% of counties without a general surgeon. If unaddressed, annual patient costs from these shortages are projected to rise from $430 to $1,250 by 2040. However, experts suggest that targeted investments in training capacity, clinician retention, and administrative AI tools could close up to 92% of the projected workforce gap.

Projections of future healthcare provider shortages

• ▪An analysis by healthcare education company Covista projects that the national clinician shortage in the United States will nearly double by 2040.
• ▪The American College of Surgeons projects that the United States will face a shortage of nearly 28,000 surgeons by 2038.

Factors driving the healthcare workforce shortage

• ▪CommonSpirit Health director of operations Crystal Albrecht stated that high-quality clinical training is hindered because there is an inadequate supply of experienced nurses to train new nurses.
• ▪The healthcare provider shortage is exacerbated by clinician burnout, compassion fatigue, and an aging workforce as more workers leave the industry.
• ▪Utah's healthcare workforce shortage is driven by gaps in pay, clinical training, and access to career pathways, according to local leaders at an Axios roundtable on September 23, 2026.

Strategies to mitigate the clinician shortage

• ▪Investing in non-traditional students, such as adult learners or career changers, can reduce the projected 2040 healthcare workforce gap by 7%, according to Covista.
• ▪Covista reports that investing in training capacity by opening more slots in medical education programs could close 25% of the projected 2040 healthcare workforce gap.
• ▪Reducing clinician burnout and creating retention incentives could mitigate approximately 25% of the projected 2040 healthcare workforce gap, according to Covista.

Impact of artificial intelligence on the clinician shortage

• ▪AI-powered therapy scribes and ambient listening technology can capture and structure clinical conversations in real time, saving clinicians an estimated hour per day on documentation.
• ▪Covista projects that AI tools that automate and streamline administrative work could close up to 37% of the projected clinician shortage.
• ▪Increased patient access driven by AI technology flagging care gaps could increase provider workloads and offset clinician shortage gains by approximately 18%, according to Covista.

Benefits of mitigating shortages

• ▪Covista projects that solving the nursing shortage could save nearly 100,000 lives by 2040 and closing the physician gap could add more than six months to average life expectancy.
• ▪Mitigating the projected healthcare workforce shortage could reduce wait times for specialist care by 20%, according to Covista.

Current extent of healthcare provider shortages

• ▪Health Resources & Services Administration data from December 2, 2025 indicates that 40% of the United States population, representing 137 million people, lives in a Mental Health Professional Shortage Area.
• ▪An analysis published in the Journal of the American College of Surgeons on September 28, 2026, found that 38% of United States counties, home to 15 million Americans, have no general surgeons.
• ▪National Institute for Health Care Management figures from 2026 show that over 108 million people in the United States reside in primary care provider shortage areas.

Debatable claims

• ▪Expanding medical education slots is unfeasible due to the shortage of experienced trainers
• ▪Healthcare providers must raise wages to solve the clinician shortage
• ▪A transition to preventive care is the most effective way to reduce clinician shortages
• ▪AI tools are an effective way to mitigate the clinician shortage