Russia is facing a severe domestic fuel crisis as Ukraine's long-range drone strikes damage roughly a third of the country's oil refining capacity, causing gasoline production to drop by 25%. Widespread shortages and hours-long queues at filling stations have reached from Moscow to Siberia, forcing President Vladimir Putin to publicly acknowledge the deficit. The economic strain is eroding public support, with Putin's approval rating falling to 74% and 60% of Russians reporting worsening local economic conditions.
Fuel shortages nationwide
- ▪Russian authorities have deployed Cossack patrols to maintain order at petrol stations in Black Sea resorts, and some regions have banned the use of jerry cans
- ▪Russia is experiencing severe fuel shortages and long queues at filling stations across almost the entire country, with only two regions reportedly unaffected
- ▪Russian motorists are increasingly converting their cars to run on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to bypass gasoline shortages and rising prices
Ukrainian refinery drone strikes
- ▪Ukrainian drones struck the NORSI refinery, Russia's fourth-largest refinery owned by Lukoil, on July 2, 2026, damaging a primary refining unit and suspending crude processing
- ▪Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged roughly a third of Russia's oil refining capacity, causing gasoline production to fall by about 25% year on year
- ▪A Ukrainian drone strike on the Omsk refinery in western Siberia, Russia's largest refinery located 1,800 miles from Kyiv, forced a temporary halt to its operations
Public opinion polling reliability
- ▪Studies examining preference falsification in Russian polling find little evidence that public support for the war is systematically overstated by more than several percentage points
- ▪Multiple methodological studies conducted since 2022 indicate no major distortions in independent Russian public opinion polling data regarding sample composition or response rates
Declining war support
- ▪According to the Levada Center, Vladimir Putin's approval rating fell five percentage points in June 2026 to 74%, its lowest level in four years
- ▪ExtremeScan surveys between 2024 and 2026 indicate that roughly two-thirds of Russian respondents consistently favor a ceasefire through mutual concessions
- ▪The share of Russians who believe the country is moving in the right direction fell to 52% in June 2026, down from 61% in May 2026
Hawks versus loyalists
- ▪Russian 'hawks', making up about 15% of the pro-war camp, are ideologically driven and tend to rally around the flag in response to military shocks
- ▪Russian 'loyalists', comprising 35% to 40% of the pro-war camp, are less ideological and more likely to withdraw support for the war when personally affected by its costs
Economic deterioration effects
- ▪An IKAR poll shows that Russian respondents rank ending the war and improving financial well-being as the country's two highest priorities, each cited by 58% of respondents
- ▪A record 60% of Russians surveyed by Gallup between March and May 2026 reported that local economic conditions are getting worse
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