Sen. John Cornyn leads fundraising in Texas Senate race despite tight polling with AG Ken Paxton

Jan 31, 2026

Sen. John Cornyn dominates fundraising in the Texas GOP Senate primary, raising a career-best $7 million in Q4 2025. Despite this, he narrowly trails challenger AG Ken Paxton in a January poll, 27% to 26%. Paxton's own fundraising has declined to $1.1 million for the quarter. Pro-Cornyn Super PACs are also heavily outspending pro-Paxton groups ahead of a likely May runoff election.

Cornyn fundraising dominance

▪Sen. John Cornyn raised over $7 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 for his Senate campaign, the largest three-month haul of his career.
▪A joint fundraising committee with the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Cornyn Lonestar Victory Fund, accounted for $5.4 million of Cornyn's Q4 2025 total.
▪Across his campaign and two fundraising committees, Sen. John Cornyn has over $15 million in cash on hand.

Paxton fundraising decline

▪Ken Paxton's fundraising has weakened each quarter since his April 2025 campaign launch, falling from $2.9 million in Q2 to $1.1 million in Q4.
▪Attorney General Ken Paxton raised $1.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 for his Senate campaign.
▪Ken Paxton has nearly $3.7 million in cash on hand, though about a quarter of money raised in fall 2025 is earmarked for the general election.

Tight polling despite fundraising gap

▪Despite Sen. John Cornyn's fundraising advantage, public polling shows him running neck and neck with Ken Paxton.
▪A January 2026 Emerson College poll found Ken Paxton at 27% and John Cornyn at 26% among GOP voters, with 29% undecided.

Super PAC spending battle

▪The pro-Cornyn Super PAC, Texans for a Conservative Majority, raised nearly $7.3 million from July through December 2025.
▪The main pro-Paxton Super PAC, Lone Star Liberty PAC, raised $2 million in the second half of 2025 and has spent about $374,000 on anti-Cornyn ads.
▪According to media tracking firm AdImpact, pro-Cornyn groups and the Cornyn campaign have spent nearly $50 million on ads.

Primary runoff likelihood

▪The Texas Republican primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026, with year-end reports being the last full filings before that date.
▪With three major candidates in the race, the primary is considered likely to proceed to a May 26, 2026 runoff.