Roy Cooper emerges as Democrats' top Senate pickup opportunity in North Carolina

In a major blow to Republican efforts to defend their 53-47 Senate majority, the Senate Leadership Fund has pulled $30 million in planned ad spending from North Carolina. Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper has established a commanding lead over Trump-backed Republican Michael Whatley, with an AARP poll showing Cooper up by 11 points. The GOP is redirecting resources to other vulnerable states like Kansas, as voter dissatisfaction over inflation, tariffs, and the Iran war expands the competitive map.

Polling and ratings for the North Carolina race

• ▪An AARP poll released on September 28, 2026 showed Roy Cooper with an 11-point lead over Michael Whatley, consistent with Cooper maintaining at least a four-point lead in every poll in 2026.
• ▪The Cook Political Report rates the North Carolina Senate race as "leans Democratic," while former Governor Roy Cooper has taken a commanding lead over Michael Whatley.

The 2026 North Carolina Senate primary results

• ▪Michael Whatley, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee handpicked by Donald Trump, won the Republican primary over Donald Brown and Thomas Johnson on March 3, 2026.
• ▪The North Carolina U.S. Senate race is an open contest for the November 3, 2026 general election following Republican Senator Thom Tillis's decision not to seek re-election.
• ▪Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper won the Democratic primary over Justin Dues and Marcus Williams on March 3, 2026.

Controversial Senate Leadership Fund ads

• ▪The Senate Leadership Fund ran ads linking Roy Cooper to the murder of Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska on a Charlotte light-rail train, despite Cooper not being in office at the time of the attack.
• ▪Ronald Hayes, whose son Shemar was murdered in 2024, stated he was swindled by Republican operatives into appearing in a Senate Leadership Fund campaign ad under the belief it was an anti-gun-violence ad.

Kansas Senate race

• ▪The Senate Leadership Fund, the campaign arm of Senate Majority Leader John Thune, withdrew its ad spending in North Carolina, canceling $30 million of a pledged $71 million to support Kansas Senator Roger Marshall instead.
• ▪Kansas Senator Roger Marshall is facing a stiff challenge from Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton in a race rated 'leans Republican' by the Cook Political Report.

National Senate landscape and polling

• ▪A September 28, 2026 Election Central polling snapshot showed Democratic candidates leading in six Republican-held Senate seats: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
• ▪Republicans enter the 2026 midterms with a 53-47 majority in the Senate, meaning they can afford to lose no more than three seats to maintain control with Vice President JD Vance as a tiebreaker.

Shifts toward Democrats

• ▪Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted 11 House races toward Democrats on September 29, 2026, and moved Michigan’s Senate race to 'Leans Democratic' on September 22, 2026.
• ▪Voter dissatisfaction with the economy, inflation, and the Iran war has expanded the 2026 midterm battleground to longtime Republican strongholds.

Economic challenges for North Carolina farmers

• ▪John Ashe stated that the prices of fuel and fertilizer needed for his farming operations are doubling or tripling.
• ▪North Carolina tobacco farmer John Ashe reported that local tobacco farms have dwindled in size and number.
• ▪Tariffs and the Iran war are worsening economic conditions for agricultural operations in Wilson, North Carolina.

Debatable claims

• ▪The Senate Leadership Fund's attack ads against Roy Cooper crossed ethical boundaries
• ▪Donald Trump's endorsement of Michael Whatley harmed the Republican party's chances in North Carolina
• ▪The Senate Leadership Fund's decision to pull funding from North Carolina is justified