Saudi Arabia plans military offensive against Houthis to secure Red Sea shipping

Saudi Arabia is planning a major military offensive in Yemen to wrest control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait from Houthi militants and secure Red Sea shipping. The operation, expected in late 2026, will mobilize over 100,000 Yemeni ground troops supported by Saudi air strikes. While the US, Pakistan, and France provide intelligence, equipment, and defensive support, they will not engage in direct combat, highlighting regional anxieties over protecting oil infrastructure.

Saudi military offensive plans

• ▪A planned Saudi-led offensive in Yemen, led by Riyadh-overseen Yemeni ground forces and supported by Saudi air strikes, could mobilize more than 100,000 troops, with launch estimates ranging from within a week to after the November 2026 US midterm elections
• ▪Saudi Arabia is planning a military offensive against Houthi militants in Yemen, considering either a coastal push or a multi-front assault

Control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait

• ▪The Bab el-Mandeb strait has assumed greater importance in 2026 as an alternative shipping route due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Iran conflict
• ▪Saudi Arabia has concluded it cannot enter new peace negotiations with the Houthis while the militants control the Bab el-Mandeb strait
• ▪A key objective of a planned Saudi offensive is to reverse Houthi gains from September 2026, when the militants seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait

Yemeni ground forces

• ▪Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates armed and trained the disparate coalition of Yemeni fighting factions during earlier stages of Yemen's civil war
• ▪Anti-Houthi Yemeni ground forces remain fractured, following clashes in the winter of 2025 when UAE-backed southern fighters unsuccessfully attempted to seize eastern territory

United States military involvement

• ▪The United States is providing military advisers, intelligence, and targeting information to support Saudi air operations in Yemen, but will not play a direct combat role
• ▪US President Donald Trump rebuffed requests by Saudi de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman for direct US military support, such as air strikes, in Yemen

Pakistan military support

• ▪Pakistan deployed 30,000 to 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia to defend land borders and intercept drones, but has not decided to send combat troops into Yemen
• ▪Pakistan sent four cargo planes with air defense systems, light artillery, and drones to Aden in September 2026, and deployed military advisers to support Yemeni forces

History of the Yemen conflict

• ▪A 2022 truce in Yemen largely held until 2026, when the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi shipping and oil infrastructure as a spillover of the Iran war
• ▪Saudi Arabia entered the Yemen civil war in 2015 leading an Arab coalition to support the internationally recognized government after Houthis seized Sanaa

Debatable claims

• ▪Saudi Arabia should limit its military offensive to a narrow coastal push around Bab el-Mandeb
• ▪The United States is justified in refusing direct combat support for the Saudi offensive
• ▪Yemeni ground forces are too fractured to sustain a successful offensive against the Houthis
• ▪A military offensive is the most effective way for Saudi Arabia to secure Red Sea shipping