Hard-right outsider Abelardo de la Espriella won the first round of Colombia's presidential election on May 31, securing 43.74% of the vote and advancing to a June 21 runoff against leftist Iván Cepeda (40.90%). De la Espriella's victory, fueled by anti-establishment sentiment and a tough-on-crime platform, upended polls and marked a significant defeat for the traditional conservative establishment.
De la Espriella first-round victory
- ▪Abelardo de la Espriella is now considered the favourite to win the runoff election
- ▪Abelardo de la Espriella's first-place finish surprised pollsters, as public opinion surveys had predicted Iván Cepeda would win the most votes
- ▪In the first round of Colombia's presidential election on May 31st, Abelardo de la Espriella won 43.74% of the vote, while Iván Cepeda received 40.90%
- ▪Hard-right political outsider Abelardo de la Espriella and leftist Senator Ivan Cepeda will compete in a presidential runoff election on June 21st
Anti-establishment voter sentiment
- ▪Nearly 85% of voters in the first round chose one of the two leading candidates, Abelardo de la Espriella or Iván Cepeda
- ▪Abelardo de la Espriella, a criminal defense lawyer with no prior political experience, has modeled his campaign on figures like Donald Trump and Javier Milei
- ▪De la Espriella's campaign framed the election as a conflict between "Los Nunca" (The Nevers) and "Los Siempre" (The Always), representing the have-nots versus the establishment
Security versus socioeconomic priorities
- ▪Voters in coastal and border regions tended to support Iván Cepeda, valuing the socioeconomic issues he represents as the continuity candidate for President Petro's party
- ▪Abelardo de la Espriella has pledged to use an "iron fist" to fight crime and build megaprisons, similar to the policies of El Salvador's Nayib Bukele
- ▪De la Espriella's security-focused message resonated in Colombia's interior, where he won in 16 of 32 departments
Conservative establishment decline
- ▪The establishment center-right candidate, Paloma Valencia, performed poorly, receiving less than 7% of the vote
- ▪Paloma Valencia was backed by former President Alvaro Uribe, a leading figure in Colombian conservatism
Official vote count dispute
- ▪Iván Cepeda later acknowledged there was no evidence of irregularities in the vote, where he trailed by over 670,000 votes
- ▪President Gustavo Petro and his chosen successor Iván Cepeda initially questioned the preliminary vote count, which is not legally binding
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