Exit polls from Israel's October 27, 2026 election indicate a political deadlock, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition nor Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc securing a 61-seat Knesset majority. Eisenkot's opposition bloc is projected to win 50 to 52 seats, while Netanyahu's Likud-led camp holds around 50 seats. Unaligned Arab parties projected to win 17 to 18 seats emerge as potential kingmakers amid record 77.7% voter turnout, setting off complex coalition talks.
Coalition math and potential deadlocks
- ▪Key leaders within Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc have largely ruled out entering a governing coalition with Israeli Arab parties.
- ▪Forming a government in Israel's 120-seat Knesset requires a 61-seat majority, which neither major bloc attained according to October 27, 2026 exit polls.
- ▪Major Israeli television exit polls on October 27, 2026, indicated no clear winner, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and challenger Gadi Eisenkot deadlocked.
- ▪If no candidate successfully forms a 61-seat majority coalition, Benjamin Netanyahu will remain as caretaker prime minister until a new election is called.
Exit poll projections for Netanyahu's coalition
- ▪Exit polls projected Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing coalition to win 50 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, falling short of the 61 seats required to form a government.
- ▪Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party was projected to remain the largest single party in the Knesset, securing between 24 and 30 seats across October 27, 2026 exit polls.
- ▪Ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism were projected in exit polls to win a combined total of 12 to 13 seats for Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition.
Exit poll projections for opposition parties
- ▪Naftali Bennett's Together party was projected in October 27, 2026 exit polls to win 11 to 14 seats in the Knesset.
- ▪Gadi Eisenkot's centrist Yashar party was projected in election exit polls to win between 19 and 23 seats in the Knesset.
- ▪Major broadcaster exit polls projected Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc to win 50 to 52 seats in the 120-seat Knesset in the October 27, 2026 election.
- ▪Yair Golan's left-wing Democrats party was projected in exit polls to win 9 to 11 seats in the Knesset.
Arab parties' role and projections
- ▪Israeli Arab parties Joint List and United Arab List (Ra'am) were projected to win a combined 17 to 18 seats in the October 27, 2026 election.
- ▪Mansour Abbas, leader of the Islamist Ra'am party, stated that figures from both political blocs approached him regarding potential coalition building following exit poll results.
- ▪High turnout among Israeli Arab voters positioned Arab-led parties as potential kingmakers in forming Israel's next coalition government.
Election voter turnout
- ▪Voter turnout in the October 27, 2026 Israeli general election reached 77.7%, according to the Central Elections Committee, marking the highest participation rate in decades.
- ▪The 77.7% voter turnout in the October 27, 2026 Israeli general election was approximately seven percentage points higher than the participation rate in the 2022 election.
Central Elections Committee decisions
- ▪The Central Elections Committee stated it saw no evidence of systematic tampering after Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that political opponents were attempting to steal the election.
- ▪The Central Elections Committee rejected a request by Benjamin Netanyahu and several political parties to extend polling station hours past 10:00 p.m. on October 27, 2026.
Gadi Eisenkot's political career
- ▪Gadi Eisenkot rejected serving under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or entering a rotation government agreement with him.
- ▪Gadi Eisenkot joined Benjamin Netanyahu's war cabinet following the October 7, 2023 attack, but resigned eight months later in 2024 after criticizing Netanyahu's leadership.
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