The United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, ending nearly 60 years of membership since joining in 1967. The UAE, which produced 2.9 million barrels per day in 2024, cited the need for flexibility to meet global energy demand after investing heavily to boost production capacity, potentially adding 1 million barrels daily outside OPEC quotas. The departure removes about 15% of OPEC's capacity and one of its most compliant members, leaving the cartel with 11 members and forcing Saudi Arabia to shoulder most market management responsibilities alone. Analysts describe the move as the beginning of OPEC's end and a fundamental geopolitical reshaping, though immediate supply impacts are muted by the ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure from Middle East conflict. The World Bank warns the war has caused record oil supply losses, with energy prices expected to rise 25% in 2025.
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