OPEC lowers 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day

On August 12, 2026, OPEC lowers its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast by 200,000 barrels per day to 580,000 barrels per day, marking its fourth consecutive downward revision. While OPEC projects a minimal impact on consumption from the Iran war, the International Energy Agency expects demand to decline in 2026. Meanwhile, OPEC raises its 2027 demand growth forecast. In response to the 2026 cut, prediction markets show a reduced 3.5% probability of crude oil hitting new all-time highs by late September 2026.

OPEC 2026 demand forecast

• ▪On August 12, 2026, OPEC lowered its forecast for 2026 global oil demand growth to 580,000 barrels per day, marking its fourth consecutive downward revision.
• ▪OPEC's revised 2026 global oil demand growth forecast of 580,000 barrels per day represents a reduction of 200,000 barrels per day from its previous forecast of 780,000 barrels per day.

Crude oil price outlook

• ▪Market participants interpreted OPEC's August 12, 2026 demand growth cut as indicating a less favorable environment for crude oil prices to reach new all-time highs in 2026.
• ▪Following OPEC's August 12, 2026 forecast revision, prediction market pricing for crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30, 2026, decreased to a 3.5% probability.

OPEC versus IEA projections

• ▪OPEC's August 12, 2026 report projects a smaller impact on global oil consumption from the Iran war than forecasts from other organizations like the International Energy Agency.
• ▪While OPEC's August 12, 2026 report forecasts 2026 global oil demand to grow by 580,000 barrels per day, the International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to decline in 2026.
• ▪Observers are monitoring future communications from OPEC's Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo and the International Energy Agency's Fatih Birol for insights on global oil market expectations.

2027 demand growth revision

• ▪In its monthly report released on August 12, 2026, OPEC raised its forecast for 2027 global oil demand growth.
• ▪OPEC published its revised global oil demand forecasts for 2026 and 2027 in its monthly report on the organization's official website on August 12, 2026.

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