Bitcoin Trades Around $64,000 in August 2026, Down 50% from October 2025 Peak

Bitcoin is trading around $64,000 in August 2026, representing a 50% decline from its October 2025 peak of $126,209. While the cryptocurrency has found technical support above its weekly 200-period moving average and an on-chain cost basis of $52,750, it faces significant headwinds. Inconsistent U.S. spot ETF flows, including a $61.53 million net outflow that ended a three-week buying streak, and macroeconomic stagflation concerns continue to limit upward momentum.

Bitcoin August 2026 price correction

• ▪Bitcoin traded around $64,040 on August 4, 2026, representing a decline of approximately 50% from its October 2025 cycle peak of $126,209.
• ▪Bitcoin stabilized near $64,382 to $64,600 by August 6, 2026, remaining consolidated within a trading range bounded by $57,730 and $67,000.

Historical August performance patterns

• ▪Bitcoin's average August return since 2013 is +1.12%, while the median return is approximately -7.49%.
• ▪Historically, August has been one of Bitcoin's weakest months, with nine of thirteen Augusts ending lower since 2013.

Weekly MA200 technical support

• ▪TradingView analyst MasterAnanda described Bitcoin's defense of the weekly 200-period moving average for two straight months as a major bullish development.
• ▪Bitcoin has held its weekly 200-period moving average as a key support level since June 1, 2026, reinforcing a constructive long-term technical outlook.

On-chain cost basis metrics

• ▪A Glassnode chart highlighted by analyst Ali Martinez showed a bullish divergence between Bitcoin's price and net capital flows, suggesting a potential cycle bottom.
• ▪Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value ratio stood at 1.21 in early August 2026, placing its aggregate on-chain cost basis at approximately $52,750.

US spot ETF flows

• ▪U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of +$211.5 million on August 4, 2026, but subsequently registered a net outflow of $61.53 million, ending a three-week buying streak.
• ▪Market maker Wintermute noted that a portion of recent U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF activity appears linked to arbitrage strategies rather than fresh directional buying.

Stagflation concerns

• ▪CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin faces demand-related headwinds because the Federal Reserve's decision to leave rates at 3.50%-3.75% removes pressure but does not inject new liquidity.
• ▪Concerns over stagflation returned to digital asset markets after U.S. manufacturing data pointed to slowing economic growth alongside elevated input costs.