Flavio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil runoff poll after first-round upset

Right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro leads leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in early polling ahead of Brazil's October 25, 2026, presidential runoff. Following a surprise first-round victory where Bolsonaro took 47.03% of the vote to Lula's 45.16%, the senator secured a key endorsement from third-place finisher Augusto Cury. In response, thousands of protesters have marched in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, fearing a return of the far-right and potential amnesty for former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Runoff polls and Lula's response

• ▪A Datafolha poll conducted October 6-7, 2026, and released October 8, 2026, showed Flavio Bolsonaro leading Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva 49 to 45 percent (technical tie within plus-minus 2 percentage point margin) or 52 to 48 percent
• ▪Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva downplayed the October 25 runoff polls on October 8, 2026, stating that he does not assess polls and is focused on securing more votes than Flavio Bolsonaro before the October 25 runoff

First-round election results

• ▪Brazil's first-round presidential election results on October 4, 2026, sent shockwaves through Brazil's left-wing political groups, who are working to recover votes before the October 25, 2026, runoff
• ▪Flavio Bolsonaro won 47.03 percent of the valid votes in Brazil's first-round presidential election on October 4, 2026, exceeding expectations to lead incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who received 45.16 percent

Candidates' runoff campaign strategies

• ▪Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva shifted his 2026 presidential campaign strategy to focus heavily on social media, posting his first video selfie on Instagram and TikTok on October 7, 2026, to urge supporters to hit the streets
• ▪Flavio Bolsonaro focused his October 25 runoff campaign on building coalitions, shrinking the state, modernizing the tax system, and pursuing constitutional reforms through the right-wing majority in Brazil's Congress

Protests against Flavio Bolsonaro

• ▪Thousands of students and activists marched in downtown Rio de Janeiro on October 7, 2026, to protest Flavio Bolsonaro, warning that amnesty for Jair Bolsonaro's 2022 coup attempt would establish a dangerous precedent and threaten Brazilian democracy
• ▪Protesters demonstrated in Sao Paulo and other Brazilian cities on October 8, 2026, expressing fears of social spending cuts and opposing Flavio Bolsonaro's plans to seek amnesty for his father, Jair Bolsonaro

Debatable claims

• ▪The return of the Bolsonaro family to power threatens Brazilian democracy
• ▪Brazil should grant amnesty to former President Jair Bolsonaro