The Senate Leadership Fund and other major Republican groups are pulling millions of dollars out of the North Carolina Senate race, where Trump ally Michael Whatley trails Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper by up to 10 points. The super PAC is redirecting up to $10 million to Kansas to defend incumbent Senator Roger Marshall against a strong challenge from Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton. President Trump acknowledged he is worried about Whatley's chances as the GOP fights to protect its 53-47 majority.
Senate Leadership Fund spending shifts
- ▪The Senate Leadership Fund launched a new seven-figure advertising campaign in Kansas on October 2, 2026, to support incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall
- ▪The Senate Leadership Fund paused its advertising spending in the North Carolina Senate race between Michael Whatley and Roy Cooper on October 2, 2026, after previously spending over $30 million in the state
- ▪The Senate Leadership Fund redirected at least $8.2 million, and potentially over $10 million, of its advertising budget to the Kansas Senate race
- ▪The Senate Leadership Fund diverted $20 million to the Iowa Senate race and $14 million to the Ohio Senate race to protect Republican seats
Republican concerns in North Carolina
- ▪The conservative super PAC Americans for Prosperity Action excluded Republican Michael Whatley from a $22 million advertising campaign announced on October 2, 2026
- ▪The pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. and the National Republican Senatorial Committee canceled all future advertising spending in North Carolina through the November 3, 2026 election
- ▪President Donald Trump publicly stated on October 2, 2026, that he is worried about Republican nominee Michael Whatley's election chances in North Carolina
North Carolina Senate race polling
- ▪Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper led Republican Michael Whatley by nine percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average for the North Carolina Senate race as of October 2, 2026
- ▪A Catawba College and YouGov poll released the week of September 28, 2026, showed Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley by 10 percentage points in North Carolina
Competitiveness of the Kansas Senate race
- ▪Senate Republican campaign leaders cited high fuel prices driven by a war with Iran and general economic concerns as factors making the Kansas Senate race unexpectedly competitive
- ▪Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton is running in a statistical tie against incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas, a state where Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 1932
Church abuse allegations
- ▪A Kansas City Star investigation of court records substantiated that Adam Hamilton's church investigated abuse allegations against a youth retreat volunteer more than 20 years ago, reported the volunteer to police, and banned him
- ▪Republican Senator Roger Marshall's campaign released an ad accusing Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton of covering up child abuse at the nation's largest United Methodist Church, which Hamilton denied as dirty politics
National battle for Senate control
- ▪Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate, meaning they can lose up to three seats and still maintain control of the chamber
- ▪National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott told lawmakers that the party plans to focus on defending seats in Maine and Texas while targeting Democratic-held seats in New Hampshire and Michigan
Debatable claims
- ▪Michael Whatley's Senate campaign in North Carolina is no longer winnable
- ▪National economic concerns are the primary driver of the competitive Kansas Senate race
- ▪Roger Marshall's campaign ads targeting Adam Hamilton's handling of church abuse are justified
- ▪The Senate Leadership Fund's decision to pull funding from North Carolina is justified
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