Russia could restart 80% of Black Sea grain terminals if attacks cease, analysis shows

A Reuters analysis reveals Russia could quickly restore 80% of its 67-million-ton Black Sea grain terminal capacity if diplomatic efforts secure a ceasefire. However, three key terminals representing 20% of its capacity remain heavily damaged from Ukrainian strikes. Turkey, India, and Egypt are leading mediation efforts to halt mutual attacks on shipping, which have disrupted global food supplies. Russia is conditioning any deal on Ukraine halting strikes on its oil refineries, a demand Kyiv calls irrelevant.

Impact on Russian grain terminals

• ▪Three of Russia's nine major grain terminals, representing about 20% of its regional export capacity, have suffered heavy damage from Ukrainian attacks and could take months to repair.
• ▪The NKHP grain terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia, suffered conveyor gallery destruction in an August 12, 2026 Ukrainian attack, halting operations for an estimated four to six months.
• ▪The ZTKT terminal in Taman, Russia, and a terminal in Taganrog on the Azov Sea have halted operations due to damage, with ZTKT unable to load grain since a July 30, 2026 strike.
• ▪A Reuters analysis of industry data shows Russia could quickly restart up to 80% of its 67-million-ton grain terminal capacity in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov if a ceasefire is reached.

Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports

• ▪Russian military forces intensified drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi starting in early 2026, with a tactical shift in July 2026 to target commercial vessels underway.
• ▪A Turkish official told Middle East Eye that approximately 72 ships were targeted in Black Sea drone and missile attacks between January and the first week of September 2026, with 50 having ties to Turkey
• ▪Russian attacks on Ukrainian maritime infrastructure have damaged more than 1,000 pieces of port infrastructure and over 300 vessels, killing or injuring more than 200 people since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Conditions for a shipping agreement

• ▪A Ukrainian official who spoke to Middle East Eye stated that Russia is making any Black Sea grain agreement conditional on Ukraine halting its strikes on Russian oil refineries, a precondition Kyiv views as irrelevant
• ▪Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on September 23, 2026 that Ukraine could reciprocate by halting long-range strikes if Russia stopped striking Ukrainian infrastructure.

Diplomatic efforts to restore shipping

• ▪Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated on September 19, 2026 that Ankara had sent proposals to Russia and Ukraine for a Black Sea shipping moratorium, though their positions remain difficult to reconcile.
• ▪The Kremlin acknowledged diplomatic contacts led by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan regarding Black Sea shipping but stated that Russia was finding alternative export routes in the meantime
• ▪Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is leading diplomatic efforts alongside India, Egypt, and other Middle Eastern countries to restore Black Sea grain trade stalled by recent attacks on ports and vessels.

Alternative Ukrainian export routes

• ▪Ukrainian Ports Association President Dmytro Barinov stated that alternative export routes through the Danube River, railways, or trucks cannot replace the capacity of Ukraine's deep-sea Black Sea ports.
• ▪Ukraine exported 32 million tonnes of cargo through the Danube River region in 2023, marking its highest historical volume.

Global fertilizer and grain trade

• ▪In September 2026, Turkey and Russia signed an agreement on mineral fertilizer shipments to strengthen Ankara's access to fertilizers and related raw materials.
• ▪Disruptions to Black Sea shipping caused by attacks on ports and vessels have impacted grain and fertilizer imports for 13 African countries and driven up global grain prices, threatening international food security

Debatable claims

• ▪A mutual halt on infrastructure strikes is viable for restoring Black Sea trade
• ▪Ukraine should halt oil refinery strikes to secure a Black Sea grain deal