Michael McGuire wins Republican primary in New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District, will face Rep. Herb Conaway in November

Michael McGuire, a lawyer and military veteran, won the Republican primary for New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District with 58% of the vote. He will face incumbent Democratic Rep. Herb Conaway in the November general election. The race is considered an uphill battle for the GOP, as Democrats redrew the district four years ago to be more favorable, and a well-funded Republican lost by 12 points in 2022.

McGuire Republican primary victory

• ▪Herb Conaway, a physician who served in the state Assembly from 1998 through 2024, ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.
• ▪Michael McGuire is a lawyer, a former New York Police Department officer, a former Marine, and a Naval reservist.
• ▪Michael McGuire won the Republican primary for New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District.

County-level endorsement splits

• ▪McGuire's opponent, businessman Jason Cullen, won the support of Burlington County Republicans.
• ▪Michael McGuire received party endorsements from Monmouth and Mercer counties.
• ▪The third primary candidate, contractor Justin Barbera, lacked institutional support from local Republican organizations.

Primary vote distribution results

• ▪Michael McGuire won 55% of the vote in Burlington County, the home county of his opponent Jason Cullen.
• ▪In the three-way Republican primary, Michael McGuire received 58% of the vote.
• ▪In the Republican primary, Jason Cullen received 24% of the vote and Justin Barbera received 18%.

NJ-3 general election outlook

• ▪Herb Conaway was elected to Congress in 2024 to succeed Senator Andy Kim.
• ▪McGuire will challenge Democratic Rep. Herb Conaway in the November general election.
• ▪The 3rd Congressional District is considered Democratic-leaning.
• ▪New Jersey's 3rd District covers parts of Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties.

District redistricting effects

• ▪Democrats redrew the 3rd district four years ago to include liberal-leaning suburbs of Trenton, making it an uphill climb for any Republican.
• ▪Before redistricting, the 3rd district covered a large portion of deep-red Ocean County.

Historical Republican district performance

• ▪Republicans held New Jersey's 3rd district as recently as 2018.
• ▪In 2022, well-funded Republican nominee Bob Healey lost the 3rd district race by 12 points.

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