Latino voters favor Democratic control of Congress by 24-point margin in NBC News/Telemundo poll

A new NBC News/Telemundo poll reveals a dramatic shift ahead of the midterms, with Latino registered voters favoring Democratic control of Congress by a 24-point margin (59% to 35%), doubling the gap from 2024. This reversal, driven by severe dissatisfaction with Donald Trump's handling of the cost of living and aggressive immigration enforcement, threatens the Republican strategy built around newly drawn districts in Texas and Florida. While Trump's approval among Latinos has plunged to 27%, Democrats still face brand challenges as their own favorability remains flat.

Preferences for congressional control

• ▪A CBS News/YouGov poll released on October 4, 2026, found that Hispanic likely voters favor Democratic House candidates over Republicans by 60% to 39%.
• ▪In the NBC News/Telemundo poll, Latino men prefer Democratic congressional control over Republican control by a 16-point margin, 53% to 39%.
• ▪An NBC News/Telemundo poll shows Latino registered voters prefer Democratic control of Congress over Republican control by 59% to 35%, a 24-point margin double the 12-point lead Democrats held in September 2024.

Views on the economy

• ▪In the NBC News/Telemundo poll, 63% of Latino voters state that their household income is falling behind the cost of living.
• ▪In the NBC News/Telemundo poll, 78% of Latino voters disapprove of Donald Trump's handling of the cost of living, and 74% disapprove of his handling of the economy.
• ▪Latino voters in the NBC News/Telemundo poll give Democrats a 21-point advantage on handling the economy, reversing a 4-point advantage Donald Trump held over Kamala Harris in 2024.
• ▪In the NBC News/Telemundo poll, 65% of Latino voters say Donald Trump's policies have hurt economic conditions, while 23% say they have helped.

Donald Trump's job approval

• ▪Donald Trump's job approval rating among Latino men specifically stands at 33%, while 64% of Latino men disapprove of his performance.
• ▪The NBC News/Telemundo poll shows Donald Trump's overall job approval rating among Latino voters stands at 27%, with 69% of respondents disapproving.

Immigration enforcement concerns

• ▪In the NBC News/Telemundo poll, 67% of Latino voters say Donald Trump's immigration enforcement measures have gone too far.
• ▪According to the NBC News/Telemundo poll, 31% of Latino voters say they or someone close to them carries identification because of Immigration and Customs Enforcement concerns.

Impact on Republican electoral prospects

• ▪Republicans built their 2026 midterm strategy around newly drawn House districts in Texas and Florida, assuming Donald Trump's 2024 Latino gains would endure.
• ▪The shift in Latino voter sentiment threatens Republican control of competitive House districts and statewide races in Texas, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona.

Latino votes in the 2024 election

• ▪In the 2024 presidential election, exit polls showed Donald Trump won 46% of the Latino vote nationally, compared with 51% for Democrat Kamala Harris.
• ▪In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump won Latino men by 10 points according to exit polls, after Joe Biden won them by 23 points in 2020.

Debatable claims

• ▪Donald Trump's economic policies have done more harm than good for Latino voters
• ▪The Republican Party's 2024 gains among Latino voters represent a permanent political realignment
• ▪The Democratic Party has a fundamental brand problem with Latino voters
• ▪The Trump administration's aggressive immigration enforcement crackdown has gone too far