Republicans pour money into battleground states as polls show struggles in red territory

Republicans are facing a severe political undertow ahead of the midterm elections, with key Senate races in North Carolina and Georgia slipping from their grasp. Driven by economic anxiety, high fuel prices, and President Donald Trump's record-low 32% approval rating, traditionally safe red territory in Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio has become highly competitive. In response, the GOP is scrambling to defend its narrow 53-47 Senate majority, pouring over $100 million into Texas and launching a $46 million multi-state ad campaign, even as some party leaders call for cutting losses in unwinnable races.

Republican Senate campaign funding

• ▪The National Republican Senatorial Committee launched a $46 million ad campaign, including $11 million in Ohio, $9 million in Iowa, $8 million in North Carolina, and $2 million in Alaska
• ▪The Senate Leadership Fund is backing Texas Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton with a $100 million advertising campaign as he trails Democrat James Talarico 44% to 50% in a Marist poll

Debate over Republican campaign spending

• ▪Texas Senator John Cornyn questioned the Republican Party's decision to continue spending resources on North Carolina and Georgia Senate races that may no longer be winnable
• ▪Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina stated that the Republican Party needs to make tough decisions to spend campaign money only where Republicans can win

The North Carolina Senate race

• ▪A YouGov poll shows Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley 48% to 32% in the North Carolina Senate race
• ▪In the North Carolina Senate race, Republican nominee Michael Whatley is running against former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper to replace retiring Senator Thom Tillis
• ▪The Republican super PAC Old North Action reduced its television advertisement reservations in North Carolina by approximately one-third during the week preceding September 26, 2026
• ▪Republican Michael Whatley's campaign in North Carolina has focused primarily on crime, while Democrat Roy Cooper has centered his campaign on affordability and economic issues

The Georgia Senate race

• ▪A Monday campaign memo from Republican Mike Collins's campaign, posted on his website, stated that 1 in 10 Georgia voters are still up for grabs, primarily 2024 Trump voters who support Rick Jackson for governor
• ▪In the 2026 Georgia Senate race, Republican Representative Mike Collins is running to unseat incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff
• ▪A YouGov poll shows Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff leading Republican challenger Mike Collins 52% to 42% in the Georgia Senate race

Senate polling in red states

• ▪In Iowa's Senate race, a Marist College poll showed Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Representative Ashley Hinson 50% to 42% among registered voters
• ▪In Kansas, an Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll showed Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton leading incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall 45% to 43%
• ▪In Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown holds a 4-point lead over appointed Republican Senator Jon Husted, while Quantus Insights shows the Ohio Senate race deadlocked at 45.6% to 45.3%

President Trump's declining popularity

• ▪An Economist/YouGov tracking poll shows President Donald Trump's popularity underwater in every U.S. state except Idaho, Wyoming, and West Virginia
• ▪A September 21, 2026, poll showed that 51% of Republican voters disapprove of President Donald Trump's handling of the cost of living, compared to 44% who approve
• ▪President Donald Trump's approval rating fell to 32% in a September 21, 2026, Reuters/Ipsos poll, marking the lowest approval rating of his political career

Senate Majority control

• ▪A loss of four Senate seats by the Republican Party would make Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer the Senate majority leader
• ▪Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate, meaning Democrats need to flip four seats to retake control of the chamber

Debatable claims

• ▪The Republican Party should stop investing campaign resources in North Carolina and Georgia
• ▪Nationalizing local Senate races does more harm than good for Republican candidates
• ▪Donald Trump's low approval rating is the primary cause of Republican struggles in red states
• ▪Breaking with Donald Trump on key policies is necessary for vulnerable Republicans to win