UN warns El Niño could become strongest on record, intensifying into 2027

Sep 3, 2026

The United Nations warns that the current El Niño is being "supersized" by climate change, with a near 100% probability of persisting through February 2027. Projections indicate sea surface temperature anomalies could peak at an unprecedented 4°C above average, positioning 2027 to replace 2024 as the hottest year on record. The extreme weather is expected to trigger severe droughts, wildfires, and floods globally, threatening to push 49 million more people into acute hunger and causing trillions in economic losses.

Record-breaking El Niño forecast

▪The World Meteorological Organization announced on September 3, 2026, that there is a nearly 100% probability that the current El Niño event will persist through February 2027
▪The World Meteorological Organization projected that the 2026–27 El Niño could peak with sea surface temperature anomalies reaching 3.6°C to 4°C above average, potentially making it the strongest since 1950
▪Weekly sea surface temperature anomalies in the central eastern equatorial Pacific reached 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average by mid-August 2026, with subsurface temperatures in some areas exceeding 8°C above average

Climate change amplification effects

▪Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth cautioned that comparing historical and modern El Niño events carries significant uncertainties due to the reliance on indirect coral proxy records
▪A study published in the journal Science by lead author Julia Cole of the University of Michigan analyzed 900 years of Galápagos coral records and found that modern El Niño events are approximately 36% stronger than preindustrial levels

Global weather pattern disruptions

▪The World Meteorological Organization warned that the 2026–27 El Niño will release ocean heat into the atmosphere, making 2027 highly likely to replace 2024 as the hottest year on record
▪The 2026–27 El Niño is expected to cause severe droughts and wildfires in Southeast Asia, northern South America, and Australia, while triggering intense rainfall and flooding in eastern Africa and southern Brazil
▪The World Food Programme projected that the compounding effects of the 2026–27 El Niño and climate change will push approximately 49 million additional people into acute hunger by the end of 2027

Government emergency response measures

▪The United States deployed the medical vessel USNS Comfort to the Peruvian coast in late August 2026 to provide medical assistance and technical equipment ahead of the El Niño peak
▪Panama announced a reduction of more than 10% in the number of daily vessel transits through the Panama Canal starting September 3, 2026, in anticipation of lower rainfall caused by El Niño
▪The United Nations International Organization for Migration appealed on September 3, 2026, for $110 million to protect 4.9 million vulnerable people from the impacts of the 2026–27 El Niño

Nepal glacier collapse disaster

▪The HiRISK consortium reported that the August 26, 2026, Himalayan glacier collapse caused a seismic signal larger than magnitude four, indicating that seismological systems could be utilized for future early warnings
▪A glacier collapse at Langtang Lirung, Nepal, on August 26, 2026, triggered a catastrophic flash flood down the Trisuli river valley, leaving more than 1,270 people dead and over 4,700 missing

Early warning system gaps

▪The HiRISK consortium report noted that while early-warning systems had been recently installed for several glacial lakes in China, no operational early-warning system was in place for glacier-related collapse risks in Nepal
▪Geophysicist Manoochehr Shirzaei of Virginia Tech stated that satellite images taken days before the August 26, 2026, Nepal disaster showed acceleration in glacier movement, but noted that existing monitoring technologies remain insufficient to predict such events