SpaceX is set for a historic $75 billion IPO on Nasdaq, with a tokenized version of its stock called SPCX launching simultaneously on the Solana blockchain. The offering is part of a larger $380 billion capital raise by major AI firms, raising concerns about market volatility and absorption capacity. Analysts warn of risks to retail investors, as major IPOs historically suffer significant drawdowns in their first year of trading.
SpaceX Nasdaq IPO
- ▪The SpaceX IPO aims to raise approximately $75 billion in capital
- ▪A tokenized version of SpaceX stock, called SPCX, will launch on the Solana blockchain on the same day as the Nasdaq listing
- ▪SPCX tokens can be redeemed for actual SpaceX shares through Backpack's platform and will trade 24/7 on Solana
- ▪The SPCX token is issued by regulated brokerage Backpack Securities and represents ownership of underlying SpaceX shares
- ▪SpaceX is expected to go public on the Nasdaq exchange on Friday, June 12, 2026, in what is anticipated to be the largest IPO in history
Market equity absorption capacity
- ▪Four major tech companies—SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Alphabet—are collectively seeking to raise about $380 billion from public markets
- ▪According to Gavekal Research, the U.S. equity market has the capacity to absorb these large offerings, as the total amount is equivalent to about two months of typical issuance
AI company capital raises
- ▪Alphabet announced an $84.8 billion equity raise to fund investments in its AI infrastructure
- ▪OpenAI raised $122 billion on March 31, 2026, in a funding round led by Nvidia and Amazon.com
- ▪Justin Bergner of Gabelli Funds suggested that AI companies are racing to IPO, fearing "demand fatigue" in the market for those who go later
- ▪Anthropic recently secured $65 billion in Series H financing, increasing its valuation to $965 billion
IPO first-year volatility
- ▪Recent Nasdaq rule changes allow for the fast-tracked inclusion of new IPOs like SpaceX into major indexes
- ▪A Truist Wealth review of 30 major IPOs over the last 15 years found that, on a median basis, their shares dropped 9% one year after debuting
- ▪For its upcoming Nasdaq 100 inclusion, SpaceX will be weighted using a 3x multiplier, basing its influence on a $225 billion market cap instead of its $75 billion float
- ▪The same Truist Wealth review found that these major IPO stocks suffered average drawdowns of 54% within their first 12 months of trading
Retail investor participation risks
- ▪The SpaceX IPO is structured as a major liquidity event, allowing early institutional investors to sell their shares as retail traders are buying in
- ▪Jay Woods of Freedom Capital Markets expressed concern that the IPO could be a "negative experience" for many retail investors due to the hype
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