A high-stakes by-election in Makerfield could determine the UK's next prime minister. Labour's Andy Burnham is running to become an MP, which would allow him to challenge the unpopular Keir Starmer for party leadership. He faces a strong challenge from Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, whose party is surging in polls and recently dominated local elections. The race is tight, with tactical voting and a split on the right potentially deciding the outcome.
Makerfield by-election
- ▪Josh Simons stated he resigned to allow Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to contest the seat and change the Labour party
- ▪The Conservative candidate is Michael Winstanley; the party won zero seats in the May 2026 Wigan local elections
- ▪The Makerfield by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Labour MP Josh Simons
Labour leadership challenge
- ▪Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he would offer Andy Burnham a cabinet job if he wins in Makerfield
- ▪If Andy Burnham wins the by-election, he is expected to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the Labour Party leadership
- ▪Andy Burnham cannot challenge for the Labour leadership unless he is a sitting Member of Parliament
- ▪According to polling group Ipsos, Keir Starmer is the most unpopular prime minister since the firm began surveys in the late 1970s
Reform UK voter surge
- ▪In the May 2026 local elections, Reform UK won 24 of the 25 contested council seats in the Wigan area
- ▪The same Opinium poll found that for a future general election, Reform UK leads Labour 42% to 34% in the constituency
- ▪Reform UK's candidate, Robert Kenyon, is a plumber and local councillor who placed second in the 2024 general election
- ▪An Opinium poll of likely voters shows Andy Burnham with a narrow 5-point lead over Robert Kenyon, 46% to 41%
Candidate campaign controversies
- ▪Robert Kenyon's campaign has been dogged by criticism over historic social media posts, including alleged sexist remarks and conspiracy theories
- ▪Andy Burnham has faced accusations from opponents that he is using the Makerfield contest as a stepping stone to become Prime Minister
Tactical voting strategy
- ▪In contrast, only about a third of supporters for the right-wing Restore Britain party are willing to switch their vote to Reform UK
- ▪Polling indicates over half of Green and Liberal Democrat supporters plan to tactically vote for Andy Burnham to prevent a Reform UK victory
UK party fragmentation
- ▪Rupert Lowe was expelled from Reform UK in March 2025 after criticising leader Nigel Farage and facing workplace bullying allegations
- ▪Restore Britain, a new party founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, is contesting its first by-election in Makerfield
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