Cook Political Report shifts three Senate races toward Democrats

Four weeks before the midterm elections, the Cook Political Report has shifted three key Senate races in Kansas, New Hampshire, and North Carolina toward the Democratic Party. Driven by economic anxieties over President Donald Trump's tariff policies and the war in Iran, once-solidly conservative Kansas is now rated a "Toss Up." The shifts expand the projected Democratic gains to between two and six seats, putting the party in a strong position to retake the Senate majority.

Cook Political Report ratings

• ▪The Cook Political Report shifted its rating of three Senate races in Kansas, New Hampshire and North Carolina toward the left on October 6, 2026, upgrading the chances that Democrats will win control of the Republican-held chamber
• ▪The Cook Political Report moved the Kansas Senate race in the 2026 midterm elections from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up," New Hampshire from "Toss Up" to "Lean Democrat," and North Carolina from "Lean Democrat" to "Likely Democrat."
• ▪The Cook Political Report estimates that Democrats will pick up two to six Senate seats in the 2026 midterm elections, with the party needing four seats to gain a net majority

The Kansas Senate race

• ▪Democratic candidate and megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton is challenging Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall for the Kansas Senate seat, which has been held by Republicans since 1919
• ▪Economic anxieties over President Donald Trump's tariff policies, the war in Iran, and rising prices impacting fertilizer and gas have made the Kansas Senate race more competitive
• ▪The Cook Political Report shifted the Kansas Senate race to a "Toss Up" on October 6, 2026, a state where Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate seat in 94 years

The New Hampshire Senate race

• ▪In New Hampshire, Democratic candidate Chris Pappas leads Republican John E. Sununu in recent polling for the U.S. Senate seat, though the state has not elected a Republican senator in over 15 years
• ▪Prediction market sites Kalshi and Polymarket showed Democratic candidate Chris Pappas leading Republican John E. Sununu on the afternoon of October 6, 2026

The North Carolina Senate race

• ▪Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in approximately 18 years, but prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket showed Roy Cooper leading Michael Whatley on October 6, 2026
• ▪In North Carolina, Republican nominee Michael Whatley trails former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper in multiple polls, leading the Senate Leadership Fund to pause advertising to redirect resources elsewhere

Shapiro's electoral outlook

• ▪Columbia University political science professor Robert Y. Shapiro stated on October 6, 2026, that national congressional polls show an 8-point or better lead in favor of Democrats
• ▪Columbia University political science professor Robert Y. Shapiro stated on October 6, 2026, that Democrats must hold Minnesota, Michigan, and New Hampshire to keep Senate control tight

Donald Trump's declining approval ratings

• ▪Democrats are seeking to capitalize on President Donald Trump's declining approval ratings, which have slipped on key policy issues including the economy, immigration, jobs, and the war in Iran
• ▪According to political science professor Robert Y. Shapiro, President Donald Trump's performance rating has fallen noticeably among Republicans and continues to decline among Independent voters

Debatable claims

• ▪Republican Senate candidates should distance themselves from President Trump to win
• ▪Cook's rating shifts in Kansas and North Carolina are premature