A University of Maryland study warns that Florida's proposed repeal of its school-entry MMR vaccine mandate could trigger the largest U.S. measles epidemic in nearly 500 years. This warning comes amid a historic national resurgence, highlighted by a severe outbreak in Pennsylvania that has reached nearly 900 cases and four deaths. The surge has sparked a tense dispute between Pennsylvania officials and the Trump administration's Department of Health and Human Services over the official federal count of measles-associated deaths.
University of Maryland study findings
- ▪A University of Maryland study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on September 28, 2026, warns that Florida's proposed repeal of its school-entry MMR vaccine mandate could spark the largest U.S. measles epidemic in nearly 500 years.
- ▪The University of Maryland study found that vaccinating one child is three times more effective at reducing measles transmission than vaccinating one adult due to face-to-face interaction patterns among children.
- ▪The University of Maryland transmission model, based on a 2025 Gaines County, Texas outbreak, shows that Florida's current vaccination coverage is already below the level needed to prevent sustained measles transmission.
Florida vaccine exemptions
- ▪Florida offers vaccine exemptions for religious, personal, or medical reasons and has resisted behavioral measures in the past.
- ▪Florida's vaccine exemption requests stand at 5.9%, which is significantly higher than the national average of 4.2%.
Recent U.S. measles resurgence
- ▪Recent measles infection clusters in Texas, New Mexico, and South Carolina occurred as those states fell below their respective vaccine-induced herd immunity thresholds.
- ▪The American Medical Association notes that the 2026 measles resurgence is the most active year for the disease in the United States since the 1990s.
Pennsylvania measles outbreak statistics
- ▪The Pennsylvania Department of Health noted that fewer than 1 percent of its reported measles cases occurred among vaccinated individuals, while 31 percent were among people under the age of 18.
- ▪The Pennsylvania Department of Health reported that the state's measles outbreak has grown to 890 cases across 39 counties, resulting in 173 hospitalizations and four deaths as of late September 2026.
Dispute over measles death reporting
- ▪The Trump administration's Department of Health and Human Services and Pennsylvania leaders have sparred over the state's four reported measles-associated deaths, while the CDC website officially lists only one verified death.
- ▪HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. stated that the CDC would pull data for measles death counts in early September 2026, breaking from the practice of updating deaths based on state notifications.
Vaccine hesitancy and beliefs
- ▪National survey data shows that 16% of parents are not confident in the safety of the MMR vaccine, 17% believe its risks outweigh its benefits, and 18% oppose school-entry MMR vaccination mandates.
- ▪Experts state that vaccine hesitancy and misinformation have contributed to a decline in childhood vaccination rates.
Debatable claims
- ▪The public health benefits of the MMR vaccine outweigh its potential risks
- ▪Florida should retain its school-entry MMR vaccine mandate
- ▪The University of Maryland's projected measles epidemic in Florida is realistic
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