Ukrainian Drone Strikes Force Repeated Shutdowns of Kazakhstan's Main Oil Export Route Through Black Sea

Jul 29, 2026

A series of Ukrainian drone attacks on July 30, 2026, struck two tankers near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal in Novorossiysk, forcing the third shutdown of Kazakhstan's primary oil export route this month. The disruptions threaten Kazakhstan's economic interests, as the CPC pipeline carries over 80% of its crude exports. While Astana seeks alternatives like the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, infrastructure bottlenecks at the port of Aktau and capacity limits restrict immediate expansion.

Novorossiysk terminal drone attacks

▪The drone attack on the Nissos Sifnos on July 30, 2026, caused a fire on the cargo deck, which was extinguished by the crew and support vessels.
▪On July 30, 2026, a Ukrainian drone attack damaged agricultural and port infrastructure at Russia's Black Sea port of Taman, injuring several people.
▪On July 30, 2026, Ukrainian drone attacks struck two tankers, the Marshall Islands-flagged Nissos Sifnos and the Isle of Man-flagged Marathi, near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal outside Novorossiysk.

CPC pipeline export disruptions

▪The Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline runs 1,510 kilometers from the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan through Russia to Novorossiysk and carries over 80% of Kazakhstan's crude oil exports.
▪The Caspian Pipeline Consortium suspended oil loadings at its Black Sea terminal on July 30, 2026, marking the third suspension of the month.
▪Previous suspensions of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal in July 2026 reduced Kazakhstan's daily crude oil production by half, from 2.16 million barrels per day to approximately 1 million barrels per day.

BTC pipeline expansion plans

▪The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline transported 1.2 million tons of Kazakh oil in 2025, with plans to transport between 1.5 and 2.2 million tons in 2026.
▪Kazakhstan's Energy Minister has outlined a vision to increase the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline's throughput of Kazakh oil up to 20 million tonnes per year.

Aktau port infrastructure bottlenecks

▪The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline operates near its maximum capacity of 60 million tonnes per year with Azerbaijani crude, leaving little room for Kazakh oil without expansion investments.
▪Expanding Kazakh oil transit through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is limited because the port of Aktau requires dredging due to a two-meter decrease in the Caspian Sea water level over two decades.

Azerbaijan Central Asia transit

▪In July 2026, the operator bp handed over the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic, which receives revenue for Kazakh oil shipments.
▪Kazakhstan's Energy Minister Akkenzhenov confirmed the country is assessing options to expand Caspian transit through Azerbaijan, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan route and the Baku-Supsa pipeline.