Trump and Elon Musk-aligned super PACs spend millions on Republican midterm campaigns

With less than eight weeks until the 2026 midterm elections, Donald Trump and Elon Musk have unleashed millions of dollars to bolster vulnerable Republicans. Facing low approval ratings and economic headwinds from inflation and the Iran war, Trump-aligned groups like the newly formed No Going Back PAC have reserved over $98.5 million in advertising. This massive cash injection targets critical Senate races in Texas, Michigan, and Ohio, alongside key House defenses like Representative Mike Lawler's seat in New York.

Trump-aligned super PAC spending

• ▪Super PACs like MAGA Inc. face higher television advertising rates in the final 60 days of the campaign compared to individual candidate campaigns, which legally qualify for a broadcaster's lowest rates.
• ▪The newly established Safety and Affordability PAC, which is affiliated with Donald Trump's main political committee MAGA Inc., reserved $27 million in advertising.
• ▪No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC both registered with the Federal Election Commission on September 1, 2026, sharing the same treasurer, address, and phone number as MAGA Inc.
• ▪The Trump-affiliated super PAC No Going Back reserved more than $98.5 million in advertising to boost Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.
• ▪Donald Trump stated in September 2026 that he planned to allocate between $400 million and $500 million from his political operation to boost Republicans in the midterm elections.
• ▪Donald Trump's main super PAC, MAGA Inc., reported having approximately $403.5 million in cash on hand as of July 31, 2026.

Republican midterm electoral challenges

• ▪An NBC News Decision Desk Poll in September 2026 found that Donald Trump's job approval rating fell to 36%, while only 31% approved of his handling of the war with Iran.
• ▪An August 2026 Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that only 32% of registered voters approved of Donald Trump's handling of the economy, with 37% favoring the Democratic Party's approach compared to 36% for Republicans.
• ▪MAGA Inc. chief James Blair argued that Republicans are still dealing with inflation left over from President Joe Biden, whose administration ended in January 2025.
• ▪U.S. inflation rose to 3.4% as of August 2026, driven by Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs and energy crises from the Iran war, after having dipped to 2.4% in April 2025.

Campaign nationalization strategy

• ▪Donald Trump urged supporters to 'pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot' to help motivate low-propensity male voters to turn out for the 2026 midterms.
• ▪Donald Trump proposed paying every U.S. adult a $5,000 'Trump dividend' if the Republican Party wins control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections.
• ▪Vice President JD Vance urged battleground-state Republicans at a Dallas breakfast to nationalize the midterm election by focusing on controversial Democratic policies.

Battleground Senate races

• ▪No Going Back PAC reported independent expenditures of nearly $6.7 million against Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio and $2.9 million against Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper in North Carolina.
• ▪In Alaska's Senate race, Republicans accused Democrats of recruiting a second candidate named Dan J. Sullivan to run as a spoiler to sow voter confusion against incumbent Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan.
• ▪In Texas, MAGA Inc. and Elon Musk's America PAC poured $10 million and $2.6 million respectively to defend Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton against Democratic state Representative James Talarico.
• ▪No Going Back PAC reported spending $3.8 million in Michigan against Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, who is running against Republican Mike Rogers.

Competitive House districts

• ▪Elon Musk's America PAC authorized up to $120 million for its midterm efforts, beginning digital and field campaigns across seven Senate races and multiple competitive House districts.
• ▪No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC became the largest spenders in New York's 17th congressional district to defend vulnerable Republican U.S. Representative Mike Lawler against Democrat Cait Conley.

Debatable claims

• ▪Congress should approve Donald Trump's proposed $5,000 'Trump dividend'
• ▪Donald Trump's tariff policies are the primary driver of the 2026 inflation rise
• ▪Republican midterm candidates should center their campaigns on Donald Trump