Cook Political Report shifts Texas and Iowa Senate races to toss-up
The Cook Political Report shifts the open U.S. Senate races in Texas and Iowa from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up," boosting Democratic hopes of overturning the GOP's 53-47 Senate majority. In Texas, scandal-plagued Republican Ken Paxton is tied in polls with Democrat James Talarico. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek challenges Republican Ashley Hinson as Donald Trump's approval falls due to tariffs and the Iran war. Both states have not elected a Democratic senator in decades.
Cook Report Senate ratings
▪Fox News' "America's Newsroom" shifted its rating of the Texas U.S. Senate race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up" on August 18, 2026.
▪The Cook Political Report shifted its ratings in four political contests leftward on August 20, 2026.
▪The Cook Political Report shifted its ratings for the open U.S. Senate races in Iowa and Texas from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up" on August 20, 2026.
Texas Senate race competitiveness
▪An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll in Texas found Republican Ken Paxton at 47% and Democrat James Talarico at 46%, with 5% undecided.
▪A Fox News poll released on July 30, 2026, showed Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 51% to 48% in the Texas Senate race.
▪The Texas U.S. Senate race features a contest between Democratic state Representative James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
▪The Democratic campaign of James Talarico hired a former staffer of Republican Senator John Cornyn, who lost to Ken Paxton in the May 2026 primary.
Iowa Senate race competitiveness
▪The Cook Political Report shifted the Iowa gubernatorial race rating from "Toss Up" to "Lean Democratic" on August 20, 2026.
▪Public polls during the summer of 2026 showed a close Senate race in Iowa, a state Donald Trump won by 13 percentage points in 2024.
▪The Iowa U.S. Senate race features a contest between Democratic state legislator Josh Turek and Republican Representative Ashley Hinson.
Paxton campaign vulnerabilities
▪Republican Ken Paxton is underwater by double digits in some favorability surveys and is underperforming a generic Republican in GOP polling.
▪Karl Rove stated that Ken Paxton's Senate campaign has a minimal war chest and has made limited campaign appearances compared to James Talarico.
▪Republicans have targeted Democrat James Talarico for past comments stating that "God is non-binary" and that there are multiple genders.
Trump approval rating decline
▪Donald Trump won Iowa and Texas by double-digit margins during the 2024 presidential election.
▪Donald Trump's approval ratings have dropped in Iowa due to high costs stemming from the administration's tariffs and the war in Iran.
Democratic Senate takeover prospects
▪Democrats must hold their current seats and flip at least four Republican-held seats to overturn the Republican 53-47 Senate majority.
▪Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1988, and have not won a Senate race in Iowa in nearly two decades.
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