Fighting erupts in Ethiopia's Tigray as rebels seize airports, declare 'full-blown war'

Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia has shattered the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, which ended a civil war that killed over 500,000 people. On September 23, 2026, Tigrayan forces seized three regional airports and launched offensives into neighboring Afar and Amhara. The Tigray People's Liberation Front has allied with six other armed groups to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, while facing internal political polarization and dissent on the home front.

Outbreak of military hostilities

• ▪Tigray People's Liberation Front forces launched military offensives into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions on September 23, 2026, which Tigrayan leaders characterized as a defensive response to federal aggression
• ▪The Ethiopian National Defence Force stated on September 24, 2026, that its counter-offensive in the North Wollo Zone of Amhara killed 272 Tigrayan fighters and wounded 260 others
• ▪Tigrayan forces seized control of three regional airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire on September 23, 2026, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to the region

Formation of a new opposition alliance

• ▪Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's spokesperson, Billene Seyoum, accused neighboring Eritrea of providing financial backing to the newly formed rebel alliance, the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, an allegation Eritrea has denied
• ▪The Tigray People's Liberation Front and six other Ethiopian opposition groups announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival on September 20, 2026, to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government
• ▪The newly formed Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival includes the Amhara Fano National Movement, Oromo Liberation Army, Ogaden National Liberation Front, Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement, and Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement

Internal leadership disputes in Tigray

• ▪Armed men in Tigray detained four veteran military leaders who expressed doubts about the new war between Tigray and Ethiopia's federal government, including former commander-in-chief Tadesse Werede, overnight on September 23, 2026
• ▪In May 2026, the Tigray People's Liberation Front ousted regional leader Tadesse Werede and replaced the caretaker administration with a new council led by party leader Debretsion Gebremichael

Breakdown of the Pretoria Agreement

• ▪Tensions under the Pretoria Agreement escalated in late 2025 and 2026 as the federal government conducted drone strikes in Tigray and massed troops along the regional border
• ▪The outbreak of active hostilities on September 23, 2026, shattered the African Union-mediated Pretoria Agreement signed in November 2022, which had ended two years of civil war

Casualties of the 2020–2022 civil war

• ▪Researchers at Ghent University estimated that the 2020–2022 civil war in Tigray resulted in approximately 500,000 civilian deaths from violence, famine, and the collapse of health services
• ▪African Union estimates place the total death toll of the 2020–2022 civil war in northern Ethiopia at over 600,000 people

Debatable claims

• ▪The Ethiopian federal government bears primary responsibility for the collapse of the Pretoria Agreement
• ▪Overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is necessary to stabilize Ethiopia
• ▪The TPLF's return to war will do more harm than good for Tigray
• ▪The TPLF's detention of internal critics is necessary to maintain wartime unity