SpaceX's stock fell below its $135 IPO price on July 15, about a month after its record $85.7 billion public offering. The shares, which once peaked at $225.64, dipped to $132.62 before closing at $135.27. The volatility is attributed to a small 4% public float and waning investor optimism, with the stock's performance seen as a bellwether for future tech IPOs ahead of a key Starship launch.
SpaceX stock decline
- ▪SpaceX shares closed the trading day on July 15, 2026, at $135.27
- ▪After its IPO, SpaceX's stock price reached a high of $225.64 per share
- ▪On July 15, 2026, SpaceX's stock price fell below its $135 initial public offering price
- ▪Short sellers have accrued an estimated $8.7 billion in paper profit on SpaceX stock since the company's IPO
- ▪During intraday trading on July 15, 2026, SpaceX shares dropped to a low of $132.62
Small IPO float
- ▪Approximately 49% of SpaceX's publicly tradable shares are on loan, with most believed to be for short selling, according to Ortex Technologies
- ▪Only 4% of SpaceX's total shares are publicly traded on the Nasdaq, which is considered a small "float."
- ▪Heavy demand for the small number of available shares contributed to the initial price spike after SpaceX's IPO
Market volatility patterns
- ▪As of July 15, 2026, SpaceX's market capitalization is valued at around $1.782 trillion
- ▪An initial investor frenzy after the IPO briefly pushed SpaceX's market capitalization to nearly $3 trillion, surpassing Amazon and Microsoft
- ▪Drew Cupps, a portfolio manager at Polen Capital, attributed the stock's drop to a "reversal in investor optimism around data center spending."
- ▪Following the post-IPO stock surge, Elon Musk briefly became the world's first trillionaire
Tech IPO implications
- ▪OpenAI is reportedly considering delaying its initial public offering until 2027
- ▪The performance of SpaceX's stock is being monitored as an indicator for potential IPOs by other AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI
- ▪SpaceX's IPO on June 12, 2026, was the largest ever, raising $85.7 billion
Starship launch test
- ▪For the July 16 test, SpaceX does not plan to recover the Starship booster or upper stage, which will simulate a landing in the Gulf of Mexico
- ▪SpaceX is scheduled to conduct a test launch of its Starship rocket on July 16, 2026
- ▪The upcoming test will be the first Starship flight since a booster failure in May 2026
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