Iraq threatens to leave OPEC if the production quota is not raised, following the UAE's exit

Jun 25, 2026

Iraq is seeking a significant increase in its OPEC oil production quota, warning it may consider leaving the cartel if its demands are not met. This follows the United Arab Emirates' exit in May 2026. While Iraq's official position remains committed to OPEC, the country's economy is severely strained by the Middle East war, which reduced its May 2026 output to 1.48 million barrels per day. Iraq aims to expand production to 7 million barrels per day, potentially benefiting partners like Chevron and ExxonMobil.

Iraq OPEC exit threat

▪Iraq's oil ministry stated on June 25, 2026, that reports of Iraq considering ending its OPEC membership do not reflect the government's official position.
▪Iraq's oil ministry spokesperson Salim Al-Rikabi stated on June 25, 2026, that Iraq has no intention of withdrawing but must have its quota raised.
▪Iraq's oil production quota for July 2026 is set at 4.378 million barrels per day.
▪Iraq has considered leaving OPEC if the organization does not allow Baghdad to significantly increase its oil production quota.

UAE OPEC departure

▪The United Arab Emirates announced in April 2026 that it would exit OPEC, officially leaving the organization in May 2026.
▪The United Arab Emirates was the third-largest oil producer in OPEC prior to its exit in May 2026.

Iraqi production expansion plans

▪Iraq aims to raise its oil production to 7 million barrels per day over the coming years.
▪Iraq's cabinet in June 2026 approved plans to increase crude exports through the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline from 220,000 to 770,000 barrels per day.
▪Iraq's oil production fell to 1.48 million barrels per day in May 2026 from nearly 4.2 million barrels per day in February 2026.

Oil price pressure

▪Brent oil prices traded below $73 a barrel on June 25, 2026, following reports that Iraq was considering leaving OPEC.
▪Increased oil production from Iraq and the United Arab Emirates is projected to put downward pressure on global oil prices.

Chevron Iraqi operations

▪Chevron entered exclusive talks in 2026 to take over operations of Iraq's West Qurna 2 field, which accounts for nearly 10% of Iraq's output.
▪Chevron signed an agreement in 2025 for the Nassiriya project in Iraq, which includes producing fields and exploration blocks.

ExxonMobil Iraqi operations

▪ExxonMobil signed an agreement with Iraq in 2025 to develop the Majnoon oilfield and expand its oil exports.
▪The Majnoon oilfield in Iraq, which ExxonMobil agreed to develop in 2025, holds an estimated 38 billion barrels of oil.