Trump says John Cornyn and Karl Rove to blame if Ken Paxton loses Texas Senate race

Donald Trump on October 15, 2026, preemptively blamed U.S. Senator John Cornyn and Karl Rove if Texas U.S. Senate nominee Ken Paxton loses to Democrat James Talarico. Trump accused Cornyn and Rove of undermining Paxton following Paxton's victory over Cornyn in the May 2026 Republican primary runoff. Despite Texas not electing a Democratic senator since 1988, public polls show Talarico leading Paxton in single digits ahead of early voting on October 19, 2026, prompting $370 million in Republican campaign spending.

Donald Trump's attacks on Karl Rove

• ▪Donald Trump on Truth Social on October 15, 2026, asserted U.S. Senator John Cornyn and Karl Rove hindered Republican nominee Ken Paxton, blaming them if Paxton loses the Texas U.S. Senate race to Democrat James Talarico
• ▪Donald Trump urged Fox News to stop airing political commentator Karl Rove in a September 14, 2026 Truth Social post

Establishment Republicans criticize Paxton and withhold support

• ▪Karl Rove cited allegations from Ken Paxton's 2023 impeachment trial regarding home improvements and personal conduct as ongoing factors in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race
• ▪U.S. Senator John Cornyn declined to endorse Ken Paxton's 2026 Senate campaign or transfer funds to Paxton, publicly calling Paxton a lazy and poor campaigner
• ▪Karl Rove stated at the Texas Tribune Festival in September 2026 that the Texas U.S. Senate race would already be decided if U.S. Senator John Cornyn had won the Republican primary

Polls and forecasts show Talarico leading Paxton

• ▪Nonpartisan election forecaster Decision Desk HQ estimated a 56 percent chance of victory for Democratic candidate James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race
• ▪Public polling in October 2026 showed Texas Democratic nominee James Talarico holding a single-digit lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race

Republicans outspend Democrats in high-stakes Senate contest

• ▪Republican spending in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race reached over $370 million, outspending Democratic campaigns by nearly $235 million according to AdImpact data
• ▪Pro-Republican political groups allocated hundreds of millions of dollars toward the Texas U.S. Senate contest to protect the party's effort to retain majority control of the U.S. Senate