Oil prices rise as US-Iran talks stall over reopening Strait of Hormuz

Aug 10, 2026

Oil prices fluctuate as negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz hit a deadlock. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi demands sanctions relief and war reparations before reopening the waterway, where daily transits have collapsed from 130 to just eight. While OPEC and the IEA cut 2026 demand forecasts, analysts warn that a prolonged closure could deplete inventories and push Brent crude prices toward $120 to $140 per barrel by Q4 2026.

US-Iran Strait negotiations

▪Negotiations between the United States and Iran to resolve the deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz have hit an impasse, with no discussions to extend their ceasefire as of August 12, 2026.
▪Negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding a temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz are continuing as of August 11, 2026.
▪U.S. President Donald Trump stated on August 9, 2026, that the U.S. administration is shifting strategy to rely on economic pressure on Tehran rather than immediate fresh military strikes.

Oil price volatility

▪Oil prices snapped their run of recent gains on August 13, 2026, as limited progress over a deal to end the Iran war left traders parsing transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
▪Brent crude prices rose more than 1 percent on August 10, 2026, to stand at $84.11 a barrel, representing a 16 percent increase compared to before the start of the U.S. and Israel's war on Iran.
▪Brent crude futures settled up 7 cents at $88.98 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 7 cents to $83.27 a barrel on August 12, 2026.

Market analyst predictions

▪Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects warned that crude prices cannot stay down permanently, noting that China's cut-back in oil imports temporarily balanced the market in May 2026 but imports recovered in July and August 2026.
▪Modupe Adegbembo of Jefferies stated on August 10, 2026, that market confidence in a potential shipping agreement is time-sensitive and oil prices could rise if the deadlock continues past the week.
▪Kieran Tompkins of Capital Economics predicted that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, OECD oil inventories could deplete quickly, potentially pushing oil prices to $120-$140 per barrel around the start of Q4 2026.

Shipping attacks incidents

▪The number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to eight on August 11, 2026, compared to a pre-war average of 125 to 140 vessels per day.
▪The United Arab Emirates condemned Iran on August 8, 2026, over an alleged Iranian missile attack on a vessel owned by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.
▪The International Maritime Organization reported at least 64 violent incidents and 17 deaths involving commercial vessels in the region since the war began in late February 2026.
▪The United States and Yemen's Houthi rebels reported separate attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 11, 2026.

Revised oil demand forecasts

▪The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day in its August 2026 monthly report.
▪The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 oil demand projections, expecting a 1.6 million barrels per day contraction and a 4.3 million barrels per day drop in supply, leading to an overall 2026 deficit of 1.27 million barrels per day.
▪U.S. crude inventories recorded their largest weekly build since January 2023 during the week ending August 8, 2026, driven by weak crude exports and a surge in imports.

Iranian reopening conditions

▪Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on August 9, 2026, that Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the United States meets conditions including easing sanctions and paying war reparations.
▪Iran has asserted the right to control shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and has threatened to attack commercial vessels attempting passage on unapproved routes.