Russia launches record 381 missiles at Ukraine in July, outpacing its own production capacity

Russia launched a record 381 missiles at Ukraine in July 2026, outpacing its monthly production of roughly 100 ballistic missiles and depleting its stockpiles. This intensified campaign exploits a critical shortage of American-made Patriot interceptors in Ukraine, which left Kyiv able to intercept only one of 27 ballistic missiles during an overnight barrage on August 1. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to strike deep into Russia, hitting three Bashneft oil refineries in Ufa and retail warehouses, even as Russian forces suffer record casualties for minimal territorial gains.

July 2026 missile strikes

• ▪The Ukrainian Air Force reported a Russian missile failure rate of approximately 58% in July 2026, which includes munitions intercepted, suppressed, or failing to reach targets.
• ▪Russia launched a record 381 missiles of all types against Ukraine in July 2026, averaging just over 12 missile launches per day.
• ▪The proportion of Russian missiles within the overall munitions count used against Ukraine climbed to a record high of just over 7% in July 2026.

Russian missile stockpile depletion

• ▪Russia reportedly used up to two-thirds of its planned annual production of Zirkon missiles in July 2026 alone.
• ▪Russia produces approximately 60 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 40 S-400 air defense missiles monthly, but fired at least 126 ballistic missiles in July 2026.
• ▪Russia is launching ballistic missiles at a rate that exceeds its monthly production, drawing on stockpiles built up over many months to sustain its air campaign.

Ukrainian air defense shortages

• ▪Ukraine was only able to intercept one out of 27 ballistic missiles launched by Russia during an overnight barrage on August 1, 2026, due to a shortage of Patriot interceptors.
• ▪President Donald Trump declined to provide 300 requested Patriot interceptor missiles to Ukraine and walked back a commitment to grant a Patriot production license on Ukrainian soil.
• ▪Ukraine is working to develop its own homegrown anti-ballistic interceptor missile, named Freyja, with a prototype targeted for early 2027.

Civilian logistics infrastructure targeting

• ▪Ukrainian drones damaged a warehouse run by Russian online retailer Wildberries in Russia's Tver region and another warehouse facility near Moscow, killing five people.
• ▪Russian forces are increasingly targeting Ukrainian civilian logistical centers, warehouses, and fuel infrastructure, including Nova Poshta sorting terminals and gas stations.

Ukrainian oil refinery strikes

• ▪The three struck Bashneft oil refineries in Ufa comprise one of Russia's largest refining clusters, with a total capacity of over 23 million tons of oil per year.
• ▪Ukrainian forces struck the Bashneft-UNPZ, Bashneft-Novoil, and Bashneft-Ufanaftokhim oil refineries in Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, located nearly 1,600 kilometers from Ukraine.

Russian offensive casualty rates

• ▪The Russian rate of advance in Donetsk Oblast remains low, making the Kremlin's goal of seizing the rest of the region unlikely even by 2027.
• ▪Russian forces suffered their highest casualty rate of 2026 during July, while failing to make operationally significant gains two and a half months into their offensive.