Alaska governor's race shifts to toss-up as Cook Political Report changes rating

The Cook Political Report has shifted the Alaska gubernatorial race to a toss-up on September 17, 2026, downgrading it from "Lean Republican." The shift follows an AARP poll showing Democratic former state Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leading with 40 percent support, while Republican Bernadette Wilson follows with 20 percent. The state's ranked-choice voting system has created vulnerabilities for Republicans, as a quarter of GOP voters are reportedly not ranking secondary candidates, prompting Wilson to call on other Republican candidates to drop out and support her.

Cook Political Report rating shift

• ▪The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted the rating of the Alaska gubernatorial race to a toss-up on September 17, 2026, after previously rating it as "Lean Republican."
• ▪The Cook Political Report had previously downgraded the Alaska gubernatorial race from "Solidly Red" to "Likely Republican" due to complexities associated with ranked-choice voting.

Ranked choice voting dynamics

• ▪Cook Political Report editor Jessica Taylor noted that further voter education from Republicans on the ranked-choice voting system could help tighten the Alaska gubernatorial contest.
• ▪Cook Political Report Senate and governors editor Jessica Taylor reported that Alaska's ranked-choice voting system leaves the Republican Party vulnerable because of fears that voters will fail to rank candidates beyond their first choice.
• ▪An AARP poll found that approximately 25 percent of Republican voters in Alaska, who backed Donald Trump by a 41-point margin, are not ranking any other candidates in the gubernatorial contest.

AARP polling results

• ▪An AARP poll found that Democratic former state Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins led the Alaska gubernatorial race with 40 percent support among respondents.
• ▪An AARP poll found that Republican candidate Bernadette Wilson garnered 20 percent support, former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson received 14 percent, and former Alaska Attorney General Treg Taylor received 7 percent in the Alaska gubernatorial race.
• ▪An AARP poll found that Democratic candidate Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is winning independent voters in the Alaska gubernatorial race by a 34-point margin.

Republican candidate consolidation efforts

• ▪Republican candidate Bernadette Wilson emerged as the top Republican vote-getter in the Alaska gubernatorial primary.
• ▪Republican candidate Bernadette Wilson has called on fellow candidates Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor to drop out of the Alaska gubernatorial race and support her.

Alaska gubernatorial race context

• ▪The Alaska gubernatorial race is held to replace the term-limited Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy.
• ▪Democrat Tom Begich dropped out of the Alaska gubernatorial race in August 2026 and endorsed fellow Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, after both had advanced from the open primary.