On October 28, 2026, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to maintain benchmark interest rates between 3.75% and 4.00%. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike. Cook's first dissent since joining the board in 2022 comes amid renewed attempts by President Donald Trump to remove her over mortgage fraud allegations, following a Supreme Court block. Chairman Kevin Warsh also announced a schedule restructuring starting in 2027.
Federal Reserve October 2026 policy decision
- ▪In its October 28, 2026 policy statement, the Federal Reserve stated that accumulating more information will help determine the appropriate policy stance to ensure inflation returns to its 2% target.
- ▪The Federal Reserve upgraded its assessment of economic activity from expanding at a 'solid' pace in September 2026 to a 'strong' pace in its October 28, 2026 policy statement.
- ▪The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to hold its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 3.75% to 4.00%
Kevin Warsh on economic conditions
- ▪Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated at his October 28, 2026 press conference that market-based measures of expected inflation moved lower despite elevated energy prices.
- ▪Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated during his October 28, 2026 press conference that interest rates affect the entire economy and rejected the idea that artificial intelligence investments are insulated from borrowing costs.
Outlook for the December 2026 policy meeting
- ▪Futures trading tracked by CME Group's FedWatch tool indicated an 85% to 87.5% probability of a quarter-point interest rate increase at the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
- ▪Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh described the period before the December 2026 policy meeting as an information-rich timeframe for evaluating economic performance.
Changes to future Federal Reserve meeting formats
- ▪Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh announced that two Federal Reserve meetings will be dedicated to strategy deliberations in 2028, leaving six meetings for setting interest rates.
- ▪Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh announced one of the Federal Reserve's meetings will focus on monetary policy strategy without a rate decision
Dissenting votes on interest rate hold
- ▪The October 28, 2026 dissent was Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook's first vote against a rate decision since joining the Federal Reserve Board in 2022.
- ▪Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented from the interest rate hold decision
Trump administration efforts to remove Lisa Cook
- ▪President Donald Trump's administration scheduled a White House hearing for November 2026 to deliberate on the potential removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.
- ▪President Donald Trump is attempting to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook from office over alleged mortgage fraud, which Cook's attorneys state is a pretext for firing her.
- ▪The U.S. Supreme Court previously blocked President Donald Trump's initial attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on the grounds that she was not afforded due process.
September inflation metrics
- ▪U.S. consumer price inflation stood at 3.7% year-over-year in September 2026, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, driven partly by elevated petrol and diesel prices.
- ▪U.S. core consumer price inflation, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 2.6% year-over-year in September 2026.
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