New polling shows Democrats leading or tied in Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas Senate races

New New York Times/Siena College polling reveals that Democrats are leading or tied in five reliably Republican states—Alaska, Texas, Ohio, Kansas, and Iowa—threatening the GOP's 53-47 Senate majority. Democratic candidates Mary Peltola in Alaska and James Talarico in Texas have opened leads of seven and six points, respectively, while Sherrod Brown leads by three in Ohio. The shifting landscape is driven by President Donald Trump's low approval ratings, which average 57% disapproval across these states, alongside voter discontent over the economy and the Iran war.

Overview of the multi-state poll

• ▪A New York Times/Siena College poll of five states released on October 3, 2026, shows Democratic Senate candidates leading or tied in Alaska, Texas, Ohio, and Kansas, and trailing by one point in Iowa
• ▪A New York Times/Siena College poll surveyed 2,946 likely voters across Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas between September 21, 2026, and October 1, 2026, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points

Senate race poll results by state

• ▪In Iowa, Republican Representative Ashley Hinson holds a 48 percent to 47 percent lead over Democrat Josh Turek in the New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from September 22, 2026, to October 1, 2026
• ▪In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 51 percent to 45 percent in the New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from September 21, 2026, to September 30, 2026
• ▪In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan 50 percent to 43 percent in the New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from September 24, 2026, to October 1, 2026
• ▪In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Senator Roger Marshall are tied at 45 percent each in the New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from September 22, 2026, to September 30, 2026
• ▪In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Jon Husted 49 percent to 46 percent in the New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from September 22, 2026, to October 1, 2026

North Carolina Senate race

• ▪In North Carolina, former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman, in the Senate race
• ▪The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund pulled $10 million out of the North Carolina Senate race on October 2, 2026, redirecting those resources to bolster Republicans in Kansas

Path to Senate control

• ▪Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate, meaning Democrats must defend all their current seats and gain at least four Republican-held seats to win outright control of the chamber
• ▪A 50-50 split in the U.S. Senate would leave Republicans with effective control through Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote

Debatable claims

• ▪Donald Trump is the primary cause of Republican Senate candidates' struggles in red states
• ▪Democrats should prioritize investing in traditionally red Senate races over established battlegrounds
• ▪Candidate personality matters more than party affiliation in determining Senate election outcomes in independent-leaning states
• ▪Midterm polling in red states is a reliable indicator of final Senate election outcomes