Gavin Newsom and JD Vance emerge as 2028 presidential frontrunners ahead of midterms

Oct 9, 2026

Ahead of the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, a quiet shadow primary for the 2028 presidential race is unfolding. High-profile figures like California Governor Gavin Newsom and Vice President JD Vance are actively campaigning to boost their parties and build national networks. While Newsom targets Southern states and Vance ties his prospects to key Ohio races, Democrats are showing unexpected strength in traditional Republican strongholds like Florida, Kansas, and Texas, aided by growing dissatisfaction among highly motivated independent voters.

The 2028 presidential race

▪Democratic and Republican presidential prospects are actively campaigning, fundraising, and building political connections ahead of the November 3, 2026 midterm elections to position themselves for the 2028 presidential race.
▪Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, a potential 2028 Democratic presidential contender, is focusing his midterm efforts on helping state Democrats win legislative and congressional seats.

Gavin Newsom's Campaign activities

▪California Governor Gavin Newsom has utilized his Campaign for Democracy political action committee, established in 2023, to fundraise and support Democratic candidates in Republican-leaning states.
▪California Governor Gavin Newsom has focused his 2026 midterm campaigning on Southern states, including Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina, and South Carolina, to build relationships with African American voters.
▪California Governor Gavin Newsom backed Proposition 50, a voter-approved redistricting measure that could allow California Democrats to gain up to five U.S. House seats in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections.

JD Vance's political positioning

▪Vice President JD Vance's political standing is tied to key 2026 Ohio races, where appointed Republican Senator Jon Husted faces Democrat Sherrod Brown, and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy faces Democrat Amy Acton.
▪Vice President JD Vance has campaigned across the Midwest, the South, and Alaska ahead of the 2026 midterms, focusing his message on the Trump administration's efforts to root out fraud.
▪Erika Kirk, the leader of Turning Point Action, has endorsed Vice President JD Vance's potential 2028 presidential bid, and the conservative group plans to use its resources to support his campaign.

Ted Cruz's campaign efforts

▪Texas Senator Ted Cruz's Truth and Courage PAC has spent over $2.4 million in 2026 on advertisements, primarily supporting Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton.
▪Texas Senator Ted Cruz has traveled to Iowa three times in 2026 and plans to visit Alaska, South Carolina, North Carolina, and potentially Michigan to support midterm candidates while weighing a 2028 presidential run.

JB Pritzker's national campaign

▪Illinois Governor JB Pritzker has contributed $38 million to Democratic midterm efforts in 2026, including about $20 million through his Ready for the Fight PAC and $1 million on top of $200,000 to the Texas gubernatorial race.
▪Illinois Governor JB Pritzker has participated in over 75 campaign events nationwide, including in Nevada and New Hampshire, and plans to visit South Carolina before Election Day.

Pete Buttigieg's midterm support

▪Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has endorsed nearly 100 Democratic candidates and visited 37 states since leaving office, campaigning in both competitive races and heavily Republican areas.
▪Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg campaigned in August 2026 with South Carolina congressional candidate Nancy Lacore and hosted a Democratic unity event in Michigan.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's progressive support

▪New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is testing her national appeal by backing progressive Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, appearing with him at a New York City fundraiser in October 2026.
▪Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez traveled to Florida in September 2026 to campaign for progressive Democratic Senate candidate Angie Nixon.

Democratic state-level campaigns

▪The Democratic Governors Association, chaired by Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, sent $1 million in October 2026 to support Texas gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa amid pressure from state Democrats for more resources.
▪In Florida, Democratic Socialist Angie Nixon won the Democratic primary for Senate against Alex Vindman, and Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly is running neck-and-neck with Republican Byron Donalds.
▪Democratic candidates are overperforming in several historically Republican areas, including Kansas, where a Democratic Senate candidate holds an edge, and Iowa, where congressional districts and the governorship could flip.

Polling on independent voters

▪A September 2026 Fox News poll indicated that 73% of independent voters believe Donald Trump has made the economy worse, while 83% believe his administration lacks a clear plan to end the war in Iran.
▪An Emerson College poll showed that 70% of independent voters are very excited about voting in the 2026 midterm elections, matching the enthusiasm levels of registered Democrats and Republicans.
▪A September 2026 YouGov survey found that only 23% of independent voters approve of Donald Trump's job performance as president, compared to 79% of Republicans and 2% of Democrats.

Debatable claims

▪Progressive candidates are viable in competitive statewide swing-state elections
▪Gavin Newsom's Southern campaign strategy is an effective way to build a presidential coalition
▪JD Vance's close alignment with Donald Trump is a liability for his presidential ambitions